September 2016

Beating Your Own Investments

Add Julian Robertson and Howard Marks to the long list of billionaires that are less than optimistic about the future. All the reasons they cite are unfortunately very compelling, but pessimists always sound intelligent. You can probably count on one hand the number of investors that were actually able to capitalize on their pessimism. But…

The Point Of No Risk

“When everyone believes something is risky, their unwillingness to buy usually reduces its price to the point where it’s not risky at all. Broadly negative opinion can make it the least risky thing, since all optimism has been driven out of its price.” This Howard Marks quote is the perfect way to describe what’s happened…

If You’re Buying, Who’s Selling?

A few weeks ago at dinner I was getting set to order a brisket sandwich. Then I saw that this tower of goodness, which was covered with beer braised bacon and other accoutrements, came with a hefty price tag of 1400 calories. I thought better and went for the grilled chicken instead. Investors could use…

Looking For Signals

In September 1929, just three days before the market crashed, Irving Fisher famously said “Stocks have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau.” He died 18 year later, having never seen stocks at a higher level than when he made that statement. A few weeks earlier,  a more glaring, yet overlooked contrarian signal was provided…

Bigger, Stronger and Luckier

Professional football players today bear little resemblance to the ones who suited up in the past. In the 1920s, the average offensive lineman- the biggest guys on the field- were 6’0 tall and 211 pounds. To put that in perspective, Odell Beckham, a smallish wide receiver is 5’11 and weighs 200 pounds. Source: Business Insider…

How Twelve and a Half Cents Changed History

What if Walter White was played by Matthew Broderick and not Bryan Cranston? What if Phil Jackson sent Kobe Bryant to the Pistons for Grant Hill? What if  free agent Tim Duncan signed with the Magic in 2000? It’s safe to say that Breaking Bad would not have won 110 Emmy awards without Bryan Cranston, and the…

The Worst Month of the Year

According to a recent study, of the 47 most-damaging hurricanes between 1950 and 2012, storms with male names produced an average of 23 deaths, while those with feminine names killed 45 people on average. In less absurd, but still true studies, September has historically been the worst month of the year for stocks. In fact, it’s…