July 2017

When Something is Obvious

One of the best descriptions of how intelligent investors behave comes from The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money, which was written by John Maynard Keynes. In 1936, he said: “Professional investment may be likened to those newspaper competitions in which the competitors have to pick out the six prettiest faces from a hundred photographs,…

It’s All Happening

“There are decades where nothing happens; and there are weeks where decades happen.” -Vladimir Lenin U.S. stocks made zero progress in the seventeen months from October 2014 to January 2016. And in the seventeen months since the February lows, here’s how the following indexes have performed. S&P 500 +36% NASDAQ 100 +52% Russell 2000 +52…

These Are the Goods

Articles The beauty of compound interest is that it continues to behave fractally with each piece of interest eventually earning its own interest. By of Dollars and Data Convincing yourself that you’re right when you know you’re wrong is a time-honored tradition in the markets By Ben Carlson Your true worth is determined by how…

Ten Rules For Catching A Bottom

I’ve never met a new investor who was a trend follower. That’s because we were taught to buy low and sell high before we were old enough to open a brokerage account. So when we come of age, we go hunting for bargains. But we quickly discover this is harder than it sounds. Nobody can…

A Few Charts And a Few Thoughts

Emerging markets (EEM) are outperforming U.S. stocks this year by 12.3%. European stocks (VGK) are outperforming U.S. stocks by 8.3%. And despite the performance disparity in the first half of the year, the U.S. still owns the last decade. Over the last ten years, the S&P 500 has returned 95%. Emerging Markets are up 11%…

The Constant Reminder

One of the benefits, maybe the only benefit of watching the market as closely as I do, being that I’m not an active trader, is that I’m constantly reminded that I have no idea what’s going to happen. The S&P 500 (total return) has experienced eight straight years of gains. It’s been five and a…

These Are the Goods

Articles What has momentum today might not have momentum tomorrow. What looks like quality today might look like crap tomorrow. By Cullen Roche Active investors hold far, far more sway than a handful of index fund managers, which is why the stock market continues to go up and down every day. By Dave Nadig The…

Today in Market History

In a New York Times article from July 7, 1932, Urges Minimum For Stock Prices, the author wrote, “In the belief that the stock market has ceased to be a reliable yardstick of values, some business leaders are discussing the advisability of establishing minimum prices for securities as a means of establishing confidence in industry.”…

Music To my Ears

I don’t know where we are in the podcast cycle. Is it completely saturated or are there room for more entrants? I spend a lot of time with headphones on and I welcome the supply, the more the merrier. While it’s impossible to listen to everything, there’s nothing wrong with dropping something when a better product…

The Financial Nutrition Labels

Investors hire an advisor to help them achieve their financial goals. But what if the person they chose to work with is not properly measuring these goals? What if an objective third party would confirm that they aren’t? And what if an advisor isn’t even tracking their goals in the first place? The State of…