June 2018

The Ghost of Tech Stocks Past

In the beginning of 1995 Intel, Cisco, Microsoft, and Oracle, were worth a combined $83 billion. One giant bubble and five years later, they had grown to $1.85 trillion. As a group, these four stocks gained 2150% over this time, or 80% a year. The table below breaks down the combined percentage gain and market…

Animal Spirits: Individual Alpha

On this week’s Animal Spirits, we discuss: Households are long of stocks Robinhood is going for it How many buyers and sellers are needed to create a decent market? Superforecasters  A $3 trillion marketplace I’ve never heard of What to do with inconsistent income Survey says A steady 7% annual return It ain’t what you…

These Are the Goods

Articles Compounding is the most powerful force in the universe, to be sure, and nothing compounds like shame. By Rusty Guinn Your perception of risk is constantly changing, whether you know it’s happening or not By Ben Carlson Just because you have a belief or preference, however strongly held, it doesn’t negate those who differ…

Pop

“There’s a little child inside all of our brains that can’t stand to watch other people riding a money train that we’re not on.” I wrote this in June 2017 when Bitcoin was all anyone was talking about. It was hard not to get swept up in the mania. That’s what bubbles do. They suck us…

Animal Spirits: The Mother of All Credit Bubbles

On this week’s Animal Spirits, we discuss: Howard Marks on investing without people The mother of all credit bubbles Time to not freak out about debt A future without Buffett Will Berkshire eventually get broken up by activists? The two most indebted companies in the world Tech loses its appetite for bonds WeWork is worth…

These Are the Goods

Articles What I thought was a major career failure turned out to be the best thing that ever happened to my career By Blair duQuesnay Learn to love the micro-stakes arena By Tommy Tranfo If things like research department headcount or manager tenure had any predictive value, then you could throw away your Bloomberg terminal…

The Geometry of Wealth

The Geometry of wealth by my friend Brian Portnoy is “A stoic playbook for navigating money life.” This is the type of book you give to someone you truly care about. Brian is a deep thinker and a beautiful writer. I wanted to share some of my favorite lines and passages in the hope that…

Animal Spirits: The Oracle of Brookyln

Stories Discussed New entrants to the S&P 500 outperformed the index by a median of 17% in the year leading up to their inclusion in the index LGBTQ and Straight millennials  My friend, Warren makes mistakes too.  Short-termism Breaking news, I’m no longer GODLing.  More than half of 401(k) participants invest in a single target-date…

What Do Clients Want?

Today Josh and I spoke about the outflows at the Magellan fund, which is now 84% smaller than it was at its peak in 1997. This reminds me of a Yogi Berra Quote, “If the people don’t want to come out to the ballpark, nobody’s going to stop them.” Magellan has beaten the S&P 500…

These Are the Goods

Articles If I had to write one sentence that is true always and everywhere, it would be this: Smart investors did stupid things again today. By Jason Zweig Not seeing the irony that history is the study of surprises and changes while using it as a guide to the future. By Morgan Housel How did…