Michael Batnick

These Are the Goods

Articles For all the time spent worrying about bear market risks, the overwhelming majority of short term traders and professional fund managers haven’t found a way to avoid it By Urban Carmel Over 50% of Americans will find themselves in the top 10% of earners for at least one year of their lives By Ben Carlson When George Washington died in…

Today in Market History

On July 6, 1981, Du Pont, the nation’s largest chemical manufacturer, announced its intentions to pursue oil giant Conoco. 80% of Du Pont’s products were based on petrochemical feedstocks, and when the energy crisis hit in the early 70s, Du Pont was exposed to serious losses. Its profits fell from $586 million in 1973 to $273…

Animal Spirits: Black Swan Growth

On this week’s Animal Spirits, Ben and I discuss Buy high and sell low with index funds! Hedge fund fees fall to record low How to Launch and Build an Investment Fund The prophet returns (2009, video) Investing in personal-injury lawsuits Monetizing poor people But maybe payday loans aren’t so evil Finally, a bad guy…

What Have You Done For Me Lately?

The S&P 500 has gone 108 days without closing at an all-time high. This is the second longest drought since the index first made new highs in March, 2013. The chart below shows the days without an all-time closing high (red), the S&P 500 return (black), and new all-time closing highs (green). On March 28,…

The Sharks Are Circling

One of the appeals of private investment vehicles is that they’re able to seek returns that are not correlated to traditional asset classes like stocks and bonds. One corner of this universe are personal injury lawsuits, which was recently covered in a story by the New York Times. Earlier this year, EJF Capital, a $6…

These Are the Goods

Articles Our feelings of certainty about things we’re right about is largely indistinguishable from our feelings of certainty about things we’re wrong about By Bob Seawright We see what we want to see By Nick Maggiulli Big words mask little thoughts By Morgan Housel The names of old dead guys don’t mean that much By…

The Ghost of Tech Stocks Past

In the beginning of 1995 Intel, Cisco, Microsoft, and Oracle, were worth a combined $83 billion. One giant bubble and five years later, they had grown to $1.85 trillion. As a group, these four stocks gained 2150% over this time, or 80% a year. The table below breaks down the combined percentage gain and market…

Animal Spirits: Individual Alpha

On this week’s Animal Spirits, we discuss: Households are long of stocks Robinhood is going for it How many buyers and sellers are needed to create a decent market? Superforecasters  A $3 trillion marketplace I’ve never heard of What to do with inconsistent income Survey says A steady 7% annual return It ain’t what you…

These Are the Goods

Articles Compounding is the most powerful force in the universe, to be sure, and nothing compounds like shame. By Rusty Guinn Your perception of risk is constantly changing, whether you know it’s happening or not By Ben Carlson Just because you have a belief or preference, however strongly held, it doesn’t negate those who differ…

Pop

“There’s a little child inside all of our brains that can’t stand to watch other people riding a money train that we’re not on.” I wrote this in June 2017 when Bitcoin was all anyone was talking about. It was hard not to get swept up in the mania. That’s what bubbles do. They suck us…