The Economy ≠ The Stock Market

For the first time ever (going back to 1948), U.S. GDP has failed to grow at least 5% following a recession. And although everyone would prefer higher growth, the encouraging news for investors is that changes in GDP have little do with stock market returns. This surprises most people, but when you think about what…

Triple Threat

George Soros, one of the most successful investors of all time, just came out of retirement to bet against the U.S. stock market. Carl Icahn is 150% net short. Stanley Druckenmiller is in the same boat. Yikes, you wouldn’t want to be on the other side from one of these guys, let alone all three of them. There…

For Your Reading Pleasure

There was some great reads out there today, here were my favorites. Not many people are worthy of “classic” in front of their name, but this is classic Housel (@tmfhousel) Pandering to the lowest common economic denominators (@ateachmoment) James Osborne on the trends in mutual funds and ETFs (@basonasset) What a time to be a…

The Iron Rules

“It is an iron rule of history that what looks inevitable in hindsight was far from obvious at the time.” -Yuval Noah Harari Imagine watching The Sixth Sense for the first time. Only you start at the final scene, and then continue on to the beginning. This is sort of what it’s like reading and…

The Gap Between The Banks

“How could economics not be behavioral? If it isn’t behavioral, what the hell is it?”- Charlie Munger Investors don’t make decisions according to what textbooks would predict. They don’t plot efficient frontiers. They do play with “house money.” They are risk seeking when presented with a possible loss, but are risk averse when presented with…

The Golden Years

“I’ve been there for all the golden years and I can tell you they weren’t golden at the time” – Lorne Michaels This was Lorne Michael’s response to Marc Maron when asked about the golden years of Saturday Night Live. How is it possible that he missed this with legends like Bill Murray, Chevy Chase,…

The Light At The End Of The Tunnel

On this week’s Masters in Business, Barry sits down with Burton Malkiel, a living legend. At one point, Barry asks,  “If I see a train coming down the tracks, don’t I want to jump out of the way?” Here is his response: “Absolutely you want to jump out of the way. The problem is it…

How I Dealt With Failure

“The hardest thing you’re ever going to do in your life is fail at something and if you don’t start failing at things you will not live a full life.”- Sebastian Junger I’ve experienced a lot of failure in my life. Like a lot of kids, I didn’t give a shit about school when I…

Chapter Twelve

Most people know John Maynard Keynes as an economist. Few realize that he was also a tremendous investor. After his macro bets failed to cushion the blow in the Great Depression, he turned to stock picking. His results were phenomenal not only for his personal account, but for the Cambridge endowment fund as well as…

Losers Average Losers

I’m not a huge fan of this quote from Paul Tudor Jones. Some of the best investors of all time have made a fortune adding to temporarily losing positions. And while this is true, it is equally true that the worst investments and the worst investors have added to losing positions, not knowing when to…