What’s Going On?

“What the hell’s going on out here?” Vince Lombardi The S&P 500 began the first ten days of the year with an 8% loss, it’s worst opening performance ever. While there are 475 different 10-day periods worse than the 2016 open, the 8% decline was still pretty bad, faring worse than 98% of all ten-day…

Money of the Mind

Joseph Ellis’s The Quartet tells the fascinating story of the birth of our nation. After the Revolutionary War, the states faced enormous challenges and as he tells it,  Hamilton, Washington, Jay and Madison were among those most responsible for bringing it all together. I wanted to share with you an interesting passage about Robert Morris,…

The Recent Warnings

According to the American Association of Individual Investors, just 18% of people expect stocks to rise over the next six months. Retail investors haven’t been less enthusiastic about the market since 2005. The chart below from Goldman’s “The Last Innings” shows a similar picture of how lukewarm mom and pop investors are on stocks. While…

What if You Were the World’s Best Market Timer?

Most of the time I’m writing for the laymen investor. Nothing I’m sharing is particularly actionable as I believe 99% of investors are better off thinking than acting. Traders and hedge fund managers don’t need my help, but hopefully the average investor who reads my blog is able to learn a few things about common…

The Worst Start Ever

If you’re reading this, you probably already know..Stocks are off to their worst start ever. But is it really THAT bad? What if we remove the January 1 anchor? The 7.52% drop is the just the 395th worst eight-day period on record. To quote the great Rocky Balboa…

It’s All Good

When the wackos come out in markets like this, spewing all sorts of ridiculous investment commentary, it makes you appreciate even more the people that are writing thoughtful pieces day in and day out. I wanted to acknowledge some of the best posts I’ve read lately. Taxes are the silent killer. (Morgan Housel) You already have plenty…

Probably Everything You Need To Know About Bear Markets

10%= correction, 20%= bear market. I know these arbitrary numbers sometimes seem silly, but when looking at the data, you have to draw the line somewhere. Get over it, let’s move on. The S&P 500 has been in a drawdown for the last eight months. Stocks are currently 9.2% below the highs made in May…

The Biggest Loss Ever

The S&P Biotechnology Select Industry Index (XBI) just experienced its worst drawdown ever. The 38.9% decline since July of 2015 (slightly worse than the fall in 2008) is unlike anything these investors have ever witnessed. While the carnage going on in these stocks is ugly, these charts only show the losses over time, as if there is not…

WILL WE EVER GO GREEN?

Investors haven’t had much to be excited about through the first week of 2016. At no point has the S&P 500 been positive YTD. If this were to continue for the rest of the year, it would be the fourth time that this has happened since 1928. Those years were 1962, 1977 and 2008, or…

The Foot Bone’s Connected to the Leg Bone

What happens to markets and the economy when the Federal reserve raises rates? This has dominated all financial news for most of the last two years. Of course, in the real world where everything is interconnected, if-then statements are utterly useless. Wilbur Wright, in McCullough’s fantastic The Wright Brothers, nails this concept when talking about…