Animal Spirits: Black Swan Growth

On this week’s Animal Spirits, Ben and I discuss Buy high and sell low with index funds! Hedge fund fees fall to record low How to Launch and Build an Investment Fund The prophet returns (2009, video) Investing in personal-injury lawsuits Monetizing poor people But maybe payday loans aren’t so evil Finally, a bad guy…

What Have You Done For Me Lately?

The S&P 500 has gone 108 days without closing at an all-time high. This is the second longest drought since the index first made new highs in March, 2013. The chart below shows the days without an all-time closing high (red), the S&P 500 return (black), and new all-time closing highs (green). On March 28,…

The Sharks Are Circling

One of the appeals of private investment vehicles is that they’re able to seek returns that are not correlated to traditional asset classes like stocks and bonds. One corner of this universe are personal injury lawsuits, which was recently covered in a story by the New York Times. Earlier this year, EJF Capital, a $6…

These Are the Goods

Articles Our feelings of certainty about things we’re right about is largely indistinguishable from our feelings of certainty about things we’re wrong about By Bob Seawright We see what we want to see By Nick Maggiulli Big words mask little thoughts By Morgan Housel The names of old dead guys don’t mean that much By…

The Ghost of Tech Stocks Past

In the beginning of 1995 Intel, Cisco, Microsoft, and Oracle, were worth a combined $83 billion. One giant bubble and five years later, they had grown to $1.85 trillion. As a group, these four stocks gained 2150% over this time, or 80% a year. The table below breaks down the combined percentage gain and market…

Animal Spirits: Individual Alpha

On this week’s Animal Spirits, we discuss: Households are long of stocks Robinhood is going for it How many buyers and sellers are needed to create a decent market? Superforecasters  A $3 trillion marketplace I’ve never heard of What to do with inconsistent income Survey says A steady 7% annual return It ain’t what you…

These Are the Goods

Articles Compounding is the most powerful force in the universe, to be sure, and nothing compounds like shame. By Rusty Guinn Your perception of risk is constantly changing, whether you know it’s happening or not By Ben Carlson Just because you have a belief or preference, however strongly held, it doesn’t negate those who differ…

Pop

“There’s a little child inside all of our brains that can’t stand to watch other people riding a money train that we’re not on.” I wrote this in June 2017 when Bitcoin was all anyone was talking about. It was hard not to get swept up in the mania. That’s what bubbles do. They suck us…

Animal Spirits: The Mother of All Credit Bubbles

On this week’s Animal Spirits, we discuss: Howard Marks on investing without people The mother of all credit bubbles Time to not freak out about debt A future without Buffett Will Berkshire eventually get broken up by activists? The two most indebted companies in the world Tech loses its appetite for bonds WeWork is worth…

These Are the Goods

Articles What I thought was a major career failure turned out to be the best thing that ever happened to my career By Blair duQuesnay Learn to love the micro-stakes arena By Tommy Tranfo If things like research department headcount or manager tenure had any predictive value, then you could throw away your Bloomberg terminal…