Investors haven’t had much to be excited about through the first week of 2016. At no point has the S&P 500 been positive YTD. If this were to continue for the rest of the year, it would be the fourth time that this has happened since 1928. Those years were 1962, 1977 and 2008, or 1982.33 on average. Of course nobody knows whether stocks will tick into the green, or whether in fact we are heading into a 1982.33 style bear…
Why do you say nobody knows? In this case tricky for sure – after 20 years trading there are spots 3-4 times a year on avg where I know 70% certainty therefore trade IN SIZE. I notice you repeat dais statement often; via probability or to be fair implied probability one can mathematically ‘know’. My mentor the top Bridge player in the world taught me said combo math/prob/game theory. …?!