What will the headlines and articles be like if the S&P 500 goes flat on the year? If this were to happen, the index will be in a 6.45% drawdown. It’s easy to forget how normal this is when something that happens all the time hasn’t happened in a very long time.
As you can see in the chart below (S&P 500 black, gray/red drawdowns), we were last this far off the all-time highs two years ago.
If stocks give up their January gains, it’s going to get really loud out there. Prepare yourself now for the parade of noise. If you’re prone to being a human being, buy some ear plugs, lose your account password, do whatever you have to do to insulate yourself from yourself.
The ride up has been way too easy. We could use a little (or big) shake out to remind ourselves what risk feels like.