57 Points

Tariffs. Trade wars. Over valued stocks. Late in the cycle. Rising interest rates. A flattening yield curve. Complacent investors.

And yet here we are. The Dow is up 57 points this year.

It’s easy to imagine a scenario where any combination of the above would cause stocks to fall 20% or more. It’s hard to come up with a list of reasons why it will do the opposite.

If you’re worried, welcome to investing. Fighting the worry is 90% of the battle.

The worst thing an investor can do when headline risk appears is to make binary all in or all out decisions. If you’re uncomfortable with your current portfolio, it’s okay to take less risk. In fact, I’d encourage that. What’s not okay is hoping this trade war stuff blows over, and then selling in a panic if it doesn’t.

 

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