October 2018

Animal Spirits: Panic A Little

On this week’s Animal Spirits, we discuss: Do the poor stay poor? The U.S. economy When stocks fall 10% The psychology of sitting in cash Automate your buying Panic a little Higher returns, run! Everyone thinks they’re going to win the lottery Uber is worth more than some industries Don’t make your long-term investment decisions…

A Top or The Top?

Since the S&P 500 bottomed in March 2009, there are 337 stocks that were part of the index then that still remain in it today. Of those 337, Amazon is one of 38 that has gained 1,000%. The stock has compounded at nearly 40% a year for the better part of the last decade, for…

These Are the Goods

Articles Do you remember what your portfolio’s return in 2002? By Blair duQuesnay During very tough times, many want simple explanations By Cliff Asness Economic cycles don’t care who the president is and they certainly don’t care what the calendar says By Ben Carlson The bloodless verdict of the market is beginning to call bullsh*t…

All You Need to Do to Finish Rich

One of the most important items on L.B.J.’s political agenda when he was foisted into the oval office was social reform. But Johnson knew this would be an uphill battle, so he decided to focus on something that would receive bipartisan support. He thought that if he could pass a tax cut, which was previously…

Seven Minute Charts

I’ve got seven charts to quickly go over tonight. Unless the selling stops tomorrow, the S&P 500 is about to experience something it has only done once since 1960- two separate 10% drawdowns in one calendar year. This last happened in 1990, when stocks fell 10% right out of the gate, made a new intra-year…

Animal Spirits: The Next Subprime

On today’s Animal Spirits, we discuss The next subprime? Leveraged loan default rates are not something to worry about right now Housing is 15-18% of GDP (I said 12-13% on the show) Existing home sales are dropping Eaton Vance with some good slides on leveraged loans Ben contradicts himself Where does…chocolate milk come from? Alpha…

Higher Highs and Lower Lows

Harry Hopkins, head of the Civil Works Administration once said, “People don’t eat in the long run- they eat every day.” This perfectly describes why it’s so difficult to earn market returns. We might know, or think we know, that stocks are biased upwards, but the market does a good job of making you work…

These Are the Goods

Articles Alpha within factors. By Patrick O’Shaughnessy There is a graveyard of companies whose early success pushed them to grow as fast as they could By Morgan Housel The worst kind of bear market is the one you don’t see show up on your annual statements By Ben Carlson A robust system is one that…

Animal Spirits: The Healthy Correction

On today’s Animal Spirits, we discuss: Why you should not default on your 401(k) loans There are enough active buyers and sellers of stocks Student loan debt Attitudes on home ownership (survey) Are taxis cheap or a value trap? Amazon is going to tell you when you’re sick Tesla sold more cars than Mercedes Listen…

These Are the Goods

Articles We must be able to hold multiple truths in our head at once. By Rusty Guinn I spend about half of my time wondering why I have so much in stocks and about half wondering why I have so little. By Jason Zweig $43 million in assets for $464 million in liabilities By Blair…