On today’s show we discuss:
- Why hindsight bias is so dangerous
- Laffer and Moore’s embarrassing op-ed
- Jobless rate might soar to 30%
- How Denmark is dealing with the crisis
- Stock market valuations
- Damodaran on valuation
- Dining bonds
- Massive redemptions in bond funds
- The bond market and the ETF market
- The state of the consumer before the panic
Listen here:
Recommendations:
- Ted Seides and James Aitken on the guts of the financial system
- Coronavirus financial relief
- The Great Depression A Diary
- The Tiger King
- High Fidelity
- King of New York
- Cast Away rewatchable
Charts:
Tweets:
This quote man. pic.twitter.com/JKxsi7evBo
— Dani Burger (@daniburgz) March 20, 2020
Eurozone, UK and Japan composite PMIs are horrendous, worst since or worse than the financial crisis lows. And a large portion of this month didn't even include the lockdowns now in place. pic.twitter.com/SwcgBZLNGF
— Mike Brrrrrd (@Birdyword) March 24, 2020
The message from the flash PMIs in Europe and Japan: service industries are getting clobbered more than manufacturing. Once we get through this, it'll take much longer to turn service industries back on than manufacturing. A "V" for manufacturing maybe, but a "U" for services. pic.twitter.com/k7W7IMV8QV
— RenMac: Renaissance Macro Research (@RenMacLLC) March 24, 2020
Just an “insane stat of the day.”
In September 2008 – during the midst of the financial crisis – $LQD lost -10.5%.
Month-to-date, $LQD is down -20.3%.
— Quaran(Hoffs)tine (@choffstein) March 19, 2020
spread on investment grade bonds (363bps) is now higher than the spread on high-yield bonds just one month ago (junk's now above 1,000bps) pic.twitter.com/Eu91MSHdaZ
— James Crombie (@jtcrombie) March 23, 2020
Whoa Part II: Another fixed income mut fund $BDKAX is down 40% in two days. Its "NAV" was $10 for weeks until thur when outflows forced it to sell bonds, face reality. NAV curr $5.8. https://t.co/p44LEJQ8cp
— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) March 23, 2020
