22 Predictions

Things are happening so fast these days that I thought it would be fun to try and think about what the world might look like in the next 10 to 15 years.

Here’s a list of 22 things that might or might not happen in the future.

  • Tesla investors are proven right. The company changes the way the world works.
  • Draft Kings and Fan Duel merge to fight off Penn National Gaming and Barstool. Draft Duel purchases Rally Road.
  • Patrick Mahomes doesn’t win another Super Bowl.
  • The combined market caps of bitcoin ($967 billion) and ethereum ($223 billion) pass gold ($10 trillion) and silver ($1.5 trillion). Anthony Pompliano becomes a part-owner of a professional sports team
  • Digital concerts are 20% of overall concert sales.
  • A video game company is a top 10 stock by market cap.
  • People get tired of superhero movies.
  • Interest rates never rise enough to offer investors an attractive rate of return. Structured notes and other instruments rise in popularity.
  • Consumer prices rise meaningfully higher, as do wages. A debate rages over the effects of all the stimulus checks.
  • iBuyers represent more than one-fifth of all home sales.
  • Market crashes happen quicker and more frequently. Down 30% is the new down 20%.
  • We look back on digital art as the 21st-century version of the beanie baby bubble.
  • Roaring Kitty, aka Keith Gill, appears on Dancing With the Stars.
  • Alternative investments pick up steam. Alto IRA is purchased by Fidelity.
  • Passive’s portion of total fund assets has grown from 14% in 2001 to 52% today. (H/t Jeffrey Ptak) It will continue to take share in the next decade, but at a much slower pace, never eclipsing 60%.
  • Long-term valuations don’t mean revert. The CAPE never gets below 15 for any meaningful amount of time.
  • The Dow hits 100,000 in 15 years. That’s an 8% compounded annual growth rate.
  • Disney gets into the movie theater business (Ben’s idea).
  • Netflix buys Reddit. Uses their algorithm to build what Quibi couldn’t.
  • Clubhouse is bought by Twitter or Spotify in the next year
  • Self-driving cars never meaningfully materialize
  • The world catches up to Amazon. AWS is spun out as the crown jewel and the retail business disappoints investors.