Today’s Animal Spirits is brought to you by Nasdaq and Composer:
See here for daily news and insights from Nasdaq.
See here for more info on Composers’ new one-click, systematically managed portfolio
On today’s show we discuss:
- Fun stats from Nick Colas
- Distribution of household wealth in the US since 1989
- Yardeni on S&P profit margins
- Plans for a 24-story tower in Grand Rapids canceled
- Rich millennials have lost confidence in the stock market
- JPM earnings
- BAC earnings
- BLK earnings
- US bank earnings
- Bird founders stake worth less than Miami mansion
- 8.7% COLA for 2023, largest increase in 40 years
- Bad Sisters
- The Offer
- The Firm
- Haute Tension
- Naked Gun Reboot
- Halloween Ends
- This is Halloween lyrics
The S&P 500 is on track to open lower by more than 1%.
After 6 consecutive losses.
And at a 52-week low.
Since the inception of the futures market in 1982, only one other day matches this level of carnage: October 10, 2008.
— SentimenTrader (@sentimentrader) October 13, 2022
— Jake (@EconomPic) October 14, 2022
Got request for latest $ARKK flows. Brace yourself:
YTD: +$1.2b (Top 3% among all ETFs)
— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) October 11, 2022
Treasury ETFs have now taken in $111b YTD, which is double the old ann record. They now account for 26% of all ETF flows despite making up 5% of the assets. All this and yet nearly every one of them is down on year AND the Fed isn't done hiking right in their face. Brutal. pic.twitter.com/HjOiPLpz7w
— Eric Balchunas (@EricBalchunas) October 17, 2022
I don't think people really appreciate what's happening in the options market right now.
Last week, retail traders bought $19.9 billion worth of puts to open. They bought only $6.5 billion in calls to open.
This is the first time in history that puts were 3x calls. pic.twitter.com/GR2apNfFtb
— Jason Goepfert (@jasongoepfert) October 16, 2022
Predictions are hard, even for the Fed. pic.twitter.com/3sq76ZR5az
— Bespoke (@bespokeinvest) October 1, 2022
10-year Treasury yields have risen for 11 straight weeks- the longest stretch since at least **1978** – JPM pic.twitter.com/djGNEM5KLs
— Gunjan Banerji (@GunjanJS) October 15, 2022
MORGAN STANLEY: If rates fall ahead of a decline in inflation (which we expect), “it will give legs to the rally that began last Thursday .. We think 4000 is as good a guess as any and would not rule out another attempt to re-take the 200-day moving average (~4150).” [Wilson] pic.twitter.com/DSNA7KyTmb
— Carl Quintanilla (@carlquintanilla) October 17, 2022
It's striking how much variance there is in the inflation trend for core goods. Significant deflation for some items (mens' suits and sportcoats, down 3.3%!), still high inflation for others (jewelry +4.4%).
Just all over the map, presumably reflecting idiosyncratic dynamics. pic.twitter.com/zGrFwg1gzT
— Neil Irwin (@Neil_Irwin) October 13, 2022
— Trading Economics (@tEconomics) October 13, 2022
The National Average Wage Index increased to $60,575.07 in 2021, up 8.89% from $55,628.60 in 2020 (used to calculate contribution base). This was the largest percentage increase in wages since the early '80s.
This is used to adjust the contribution base (up to $160,200 in 2023).
— Bill McBride (@calculatedrisk) October 13, 2022
There it is! But I would be cautious about over-interpreting this headline decline. It's driven by a scorching 7.4% in June rolling out of the three-month average. https://t.co/z3MN6llzK1
— Nick Bunker (@nick_bunker) October 13, 2022
Here’s my basic reasoning on why the Fed should slow or pause here. We have no idea what 7% mortgage rates will do to housing and it’s gonna take a year for that to fully filter thru.
The Fed could be creating a legitimate housing crisis here and we won’t know it for years. https://t.co/ElVrwdkHR2
— Cullen Roche (@cullenroche) October 12, 2022
— Quartr (@Quartr_App) October 17, 2022
"You see it in our numbers."
— Quartr (@Quartr_App) October 17, 2022
— Alex Morris (TSOH Investment Research) (@TSOH_Investing) October 17, 2022
New: Netflix’s ad supported version will launch in early November.
It will cost $6.99 a month in the U.S.
Ads will be 15 or 30 seconds.
They’ll play before and during shows.
On average, there will be 4 to 5 minutes or ads per hour.
It initially launches in 12 countries.
— Jon Erlichman (@JonErlichman) October 13, 2022
I have some thoughts… the VR headsets are coming. pic.twitter.com/6ebMWrXMNj
— Marques Brownlee (@MKBHD) October 14, 2022
I mean, this is absolutely bonkers.
— Packy McCormick (@packyM) October 11, 2022
The LA Clippers are launching a streaming service — a first for the NBA.
"ClipperVision" will feature six live viewing options and cost $199.99 for 74 games this season — about $17 a month. pic.twitter.com/ED581ctHNI
— Front Office Sports (@FOS) October 17, 2022
I enjoyed HALLOWEEN ENDS. It doesn't reinvent the wheel, but it's–gasp!–surprisingly character driven.
— Stephen King (@StephenKing) October 13, 2022
Contact us at email@example.com with any feedback, recommendations, or questions.
Check out our t-shirts, stickers, coffee mugs, and other swag here.