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On today’s show, we discuss:
- The narrative vortex
- December 2022 retail sales
- Auto market weekly summary: January 13
- Tesla’s price cuts are roiling the car market
- Over 5M new US startups show Covid-era boom has legs
- Google laid off high performers and earners while largely sparing ‘Brain’ AI lab
- How Apple has so far avoided layoffs: lean hiring, no free lunches
- What the Genesis bankruptcy means for GBTC
- Some home builders are offering mortgage rates as low as 3%, here’s why they’re doing it
- Inside the controversial sales practices of the nation’s biggest title lender
- TSOH on Netflix
- See Quartr’s earnings season recap here
- SCHW earnings
- ALLY earnings
- Rich customers pull money from banks offering paltry interest rates
- Avatar: The Way of Water becomes sixth film in history to surpass $2B globally
Future Proof Festival 2023:
Best start to the year for the Euro Stoxx 600 return (+7.8%) since Bloomberg data began in 1987.
(via Deutsche) pic.twitter.com/9oybLsWw4N
— Carl Quintanilla (@carlquintanilla) January 19, 2023
Individual investors have been doubling down on Tesla stock
They have spent more money on TSLA in the past six months than in the 5 years prior—in Jan, net purchases hit a one-day record@WSJmarkets @vandaresearch @hannahmiao_ pic.twitter.com/B1J9D3EYUW
— Gunjan Banerji (@GunjanJS) January 22, 2023
Vanguard's US funds and ETFs continue to gather prodigious sums from investors–~$83B in net inflows in 2022 alone. But growth does appear to be slowing–the funds' 1.1% organic growth rate in 2022 is the slowest since 1999. This is likely a law of large numbers thing but fwiw. pic.twitter.com/8pHHCCKkSH
— Jeffrey Ptak (@syouth1) January 18, 2023
The China reopening appears to be real this time.
China flights RAMPING…now higher than at any point in 2022.
Data provided by @fernavid @3F_Research pic.twitter.com/rF1V3RQrnu
— Warren Pies (@WarrenPies) January 20, 2023
“.. According to the firm’s trading model, seven of nine asset classes .. now show less than a 50% chance of a recession ..”@business @denitsa_tsekova https://t.co/7Vq8PFHwkQ pic.twitter.com/0U5sDIcoNM
— Carl Quintanilla (@carlquintanilla) January 22, 2023
Even though retail sales lost momentum heading into end of 2022, they increased by 7.2% throughout entire year, which was strongest (nominal) annual gain since 2004 (if excluding huge post-lockdown jump in 2021) pic.twitter.com/9wFm6QW9un
— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) January 19, 2023
Subprime consumers are not paying their car loans more than *ever* before.
7.11% of subprime loans were "severely" delinquent in December — The highest in the data series back to 2006.
[via Cox Automotive]
— CarDealershipGuy (@GuyDealership) January 17, 2023
Average monthly payment on a new car hit $777 in December.
An ALL-TIME record.
Is this what it feels like to hit the Jackpot? 🥴
— CarDealershipGuy (@GuyDealership) January 19, 2023
People are really underwater on their car loans. pic.twitter.com/yeefK9MhXy
— CarDealershipGuy (@GuyDealership) January 20, 2023
Average deposits held by the bottom half of American households more than tripled from 2019 to 2022, as pandemic aid & rapid wage growth have created unprecedented breathing room on household balance sheets (even amid high inflation). @Morning_Joe pic.twitter.com/S65yGFphyH
— Steven Rattner (@SteveRattner) January 19, 2023
Not a fan of the guy who owns this place, but it is worth pointing out that despite having lost 80% of its employees, and being down to 550 engineers or so, it is still (mostly) running. If you think buyout firms like Thomas Bravo aren't noticing, you don't know your capitalism.
— Paul Kedrosky (@pkedrosky) January 22, 2023
The meme that Elon cut 75% of Twitter and the service works just fine is a bit off. Many of those cuts were in the sales org and revenue is down 40%. That's not working fine.
— Alex Kantrowitz (@Kantrowitz) January 23, 2023
Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and Meta:
2016 cumulative headcount = ~545,000
2021 cumulative headcount = ~2,020,000 pic.twitter.com/RgPgV7N6gN
— Alex Morris (TSOH Investment Research) (@TSOH_Investing) January 23, 2023
Google NYC employees who arrived at the office early this morning stood in a line to test their badges– if light turned red, it meant you had been laid off. if green, you were safe. 👎
— Daniel Roberts (@readDanwrite) January 20, 2023
MICROSOFT TO AXE THOUSANDS OF JOBS IN LATEST CULL BY TECH GIANT- SKY NEWS
MICROSOFT IS SAID TO BE CONTEMPLATING CUTTING ROUGHLY 5% OF ITS WORKFORCE- SKY NEWS$MSFT
— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) January 17, 2023
$MSFT employees: pic.twitter.com/ugBRT1hlcJ
— The Transcript (@TheTranscript_) January 20, 2023
scoop with @Kamaron: spotify is planning to lay employees off as soon as this week, following earlier cuts at its podcast networks gimlet and parcast + layoffs at other tech and media companies https://t.co/N9Z8x14ktD
— Ashley Carman (@ashleyrcarman) January 23, 2023
Spotify plans to cut its workforce by about 6% as part of broader cost-saving measures, the latest in a wave of tech layoffs https://t.co/u0pIofRZL4
— The Wall Street Journal (@WSJ) January 23, 2023
Tech layoffs are getting a lot of press, but these layoffs are small, being quickly absorbed into a tight labor market for college+ educated talent, and are a poor reflection of broader labor market dynamics.
Today's Google layoffs brings Jan on par with Nov. Thread. pic.twitter.com/WodLiIVMge
— Bob Elliott (@BobEUnlimited) January 20, 2023
Someone from Goldman Sachs just sent me this message. The entire institutional sales floor was laid off yesterday. The music is about to stop. Be ready. pic.twitter.com/nbyd5r94Nc
— Inflation Tracker (@TrackInflation) January 18, 2023
The layoffs of 1,750 people are in addition to a cut of 870 positions the online furniture retailer disclosed in August. https://t.co/Rp86Xi1a0f
— Barron's (@barronsonline) January 20, 2023
Seems bad pic.twitter.com/dWNjcibPq2
— Ramp Capital (@RampCapitalLLC) January 21, 2023
Genesis filing reveals that 31mm of GBTC (~$300mm) was already sold by Genesis in last few months. This explains why the spreads widened so aggressively and clears a large overhang from the future.
— Hal Press (@NorthRockLP) January 22, 2023
UPDATE: Initial conversations/bids for @CoinDesk range from $15M-$25M
**source: “interest is coming from media properties outside of crypto, multiples are much, much lower than expected.”
— Andrew (@AP_Abacus) January 21, 2023
UPDATE: Per @GenesisTrading bankruptcy filing @Gemini has $600M+ available/pledged via $GBTC shares value to return to Gemini Earn customers.
**31M $GBTC shares have already been delivered, and another 31M have been pledged. @Gemini Earn customers are owed $900M.
— Andrew (@AP_Abacus) January 22, 2023
Goldman calling a housing bottom already:
“We believe that the aggregate drag on GDP growth from the housing sector peaked in 2022Q4”
“The negative impulse of home sales is diminishing and leading indicators of home sales have already turned higher”
cc @conorsen pic.twitter.com/XhcimmaEM8
— Neal (@termloanb) January 24, 2023
— Bill McBride (@calculatedrisk) January 19, 2023
I heard that DR Horton is offering 4.8% mortgages and money towards down payments if you buy their existing inventory. Know several first time home buyers taking them up on the offer.
— Kyle Cerminara (@kcerminara) January 21, 2023
U.S. mortgage applications spiked by 28% last week, largest % change since March 2020 pic.twitter.com/0H7FWIHZeM
— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) January 18, 2023
12-week change in 30y U.S. mortgage rate has dipped to most negative since February 2020 pic.twitter.com/kV8B1B5euy
— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) January 19, 2023
"With 11% of S&P 500 companies having reported, 57% are beating 4Q earnings (vs. 70% avg. last 4Qs, Figure 1) and 61% are beating revenue estimates (vs. 69%)." – JPM
— Sam Ro 📈 (@SamRo) January 24, 2023
We have read all the earnings call transcripts from the major U.S. banks so you don't have to.
Let's take a look at what $JPM, $MS, $GS, $BAC, $WFC, and $C had to say about inflation, credit levels, FED, and the general health of the economy.
Thread 🧵 pic.twitter.com/XF7ep6Zalb
— Quartr (@Quartr_App) January 18, 2023
"We haven't seen any elevation on consumer debt," says $VZ CEO Hans Vestberg. "Customers are paying. Delinquencies are low. Consumers waited longer during the holiday season but they came just days before Christmas and did a deal." pic.twitter.com/L7QG1vBEqH
— Squawk Box (@SquawkCNBC) January 24, 2023
Twitter says revenue fall 35% in Q4 – The Information
— *Walter Bloomberg (@DeItaone) January 18, 2023
SCOOP: Twitter’s ad revenue fell around 35% in the fourth quarter of last year to $1.025 billion, 72% of Twitter’s own projections. Twitter hopes to make $732 million in revenue in Q1.
way more details here, including Q4 revenue broken out by region: https://t.co/EeYqlsFcCg
— Erin Woo (@erinkwoo) January 18, 2023
🚨BREAKING — Moderna CEO Admits On Live Air At Davos They Were Making A COVID-19 Vaccine In January Of 2020 Before SARS-CoV-2 Even Had A Name pic.twitter.com/SMKH74NgGi
— James Cintolo, RN FN CPT (@healthbyjames) January 19, 2023
New report: US cancer mortality rate fell by ONE THIRD in the past three decades!https://t.co/XXSPnrWAgO
Key findings: Mortality declines are
– accelerating for lung cancer
– slowing for breast cancer
– stabilizing for prostate cancer
Key charts—> pic.twitter.com/Xbfm37xoKM
— Derek Thompson (@DKThomp) January 12, 2023
wow: that 2016 tesla self-driving demo that essentially kicked off the entire industry-wide spending spree…it was fake https://t.co/F5uXGvzfiU
— Max Chafkin (@chafkin) January 17, 2023
Streaming took ~1,000 basis points of share over the past year pic.twitter.com/6K6IL504oe
— Alex Morris (TSOH Investment Research) (@TSOH_Investing) January 19, 2023
Peacock now accounts for 1% of all TV viewing in the US. pic.twitter.com/hmmc2Zf2tp
— Lucas Shaw (@Lucas_Shaw) January 19, 2023
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