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On today’s show, we discuss:
- 10 years of A Wealth of Common Sense
- The most important charts for 2023
- Soft landing? More like no landing
- Apartment rents fall as rush of new supply hits market
- There’s no going back to the old normal
- Tightening monetary policy and patterns of consumption
- As home sales slow, realtors go back to their jobs
- For many homebuyers, its new construction or nothing
- How homebuilders are luring buyers
- American crypto ownership steady despite tough year
- More auto payments are late, exposing cracks in consumer credit
- Americans betting more pushed gambling revenues to record $60 billion last year
- Millennials are just as wealthy as their parents
- The New Gatekeepers
- The end of Succession is near
6-month T-bills yield is ~4.99%
S&P 500 earnings yield is ~5.06%
narrowest spread since 2001
— Katie Greifeld (@kgreifeld) February 15, 2023
I hadn't seen the data put this way, and the state change in daily retail investors' net inflow into U.S. markets is startling. It trundled along at around $300b, then people got bored in the pandemic and daily inflows quadrupled—and we've never come back down. pic.twitter.com/W0BolMMlM1
— Paul Kedrosky (@pkedrosky) February 18, 2023
“A deep recession would be necessary to achieve the 2.1% inflation projection” pic.twitter.com/7GyEG72eva
— Stephen Geiger (@Stephen_Geiger) February 21, 2023
"Natural gas prices are down by a record 79% over the last six months," –@bespokeinvest . "There’s no analog to the magnitude of the current decline as the largest six-month decline prior to this one was 68%" pic.twitter.com/Badkorg0wL
— Gunjan Banerji (@GunjanJS) February 22, 2023
Fed focused on waiters, not highly skilled tech workers:
"recent reductions in the workforces of some large tech businesses followed much larger increases over previous few years… these reductions did not appear to reflect wide spread weakness in the demand for labor."
— zerohedge (@zerohedge) February 22, 2023
(Bloomberg) – Fidelity Investments is on a hiring binge, looking to fill about 4,000 new roles by midyear as rival asset managers winnow their staffs.@business #ThingsYouDontSeeInRecesssions https://t.co/BHTVG0b7PT
— Carl Quintanilla (@carlquintanilla) February 16, 2023
"The market has been systematically wrong for the past ten months… For the past ten months, the consensus has expected a slowdown in the labor market, but every month the data has come in better than the consensus expected…" @apolloglobal's Slok pic.twitter.com/ikcBqoaKl2
— Sam Ro 📈 (@SamRo) February 23, 2023
Number of Realtors falling for first time in over decade. pic.twitter.com/GHlj3pG01X
— Rick Palacios Jr. (@RickPalaciosJr) February 17, 2023
The seasonally adjusted Mortgage Purchase Application Index falls 18.1% to 147.1.
That's the lowest purchase apps reading of the 21st century.
On a year-over-year basis, total purchase apps are down 41.5%. pic.twitter.com/zl2BZcSwcg
— Lance Lambert (@NewsLambert) February 22, 2023
$HD customers are Homeowners and 90% have fixed rate mortgages of 5% or lower…no motivation to sell. pic.twitter.com/NgGD1VNrc4
— Disruptor ⚡️ (@DisruptorStocks) February 21, 2023
January marked 12 consecutive monthly declines in existing single-family home sales, which is by far the longest streak in history (going back to 1960s) pic.twitter.com/6wT9iZbNH3
— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) February 23, 2023
I don’t study commercial real estate, but man it’s hard to see how the office market escapes without a 1980s S&L wipeout of everyone involved. https://t.co/mE801vIihh
— Mike Simonsen 🐉 (@mikesimonsen) February 23, 2023
American Car Center, a 50-store subprime dealer group, just went under this morning.
No pre-warning or anything to customers or employees. https://t.co/p0Z9xgoB95
— CarDealershipGuy (@GuyDealership) February 25, 2023
Original source: https://t.co/EEri35mozb
— CarDealershipGuy (@GuyDealership) February 26, 2023
$111K Jeep 🙃 welcome to 2023 pic.twitter.com/4n3f5PDf3t
— CarDealershipGuy (@GuyDealership) February 27, 2023
Super Bowl betting breaks records. This should be on Animal Spirits @awealthofcs @michaelbatnick
— caseyjones.eth 🍌 (@DDreery) February 14, 2023
“Americans Going Out to Eat Like Never Before”
– @bespokeinvest #RetailSales pic.twitter.com/LTwsrcosAv
— Carl Quintanilla (@carlquintanilla) February 15, 2023
I posted my credit score on a dating app — I got so many dates in 30 days https://t.co/w4225uN4rx pic.twitter.com/rYlCAKOq3U
— New York Post (@nypost) February 16, 2023
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