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On today’s show, we discuss:
- Stock pickers failed to take part in first-quarter rally
- Tech investing via Verdad
- Deposit outflows shine light on Fed program that pays money-market funds
- Why one firm’s 3,612% return is drawing the ire of hedge funds
- A historic labor market recovery
- Wages may not be inflations cause, but they’re in focus of the cure
- A few comments on commercial real estate via CalculatedRisk
- Here’s what retirement looks like in America in six charts
- Buying or selling a home? Welcome to the year of disappointment
- Demand outpaces limited supply, making some markets feel hot despite few sales
- Lenders lost $301 for each mortgage they made last year
Every time the S&P 500 had a 20%+ decline or more in Midterm Election year, 1-year later the market rallied ~30% or more. pic.twitter.com/Imc2o05J6u
— Tom Dunleavy (@dunleavy89) April 7, 2023
Next few days:
-Major US banks report
-Policymakers from major central banks speak
-IMF/World Bank spring meetings
Meanwhile the VIX is near 1 year lows (Bloomberg chart). pic.twitter.com/lbWhmdOMPm
— Jeffrey Kleintop (@JeffreyKleintop) April 11, 2023
The prime-age employment rate is now higher than the pre-recession peak.
And it did so in record time, despite starting from a lower base.
It's been a historically rapid and complete recovery. Took over 12yrs to get back to pre-recession peak following the Great Recession pic.twitter.com/RK6EvwHuUb
— Skanda Amarnath (@IrvingSwisher) April 7, 2023
So much for "nobody wants to work anymore": 80.7% of prime-age (25-54) Americans were working in March, the highest rate since May 2001. pic.twitter.com/W858TSe2G0
— Ben Casselman (@bencasselman) April 7, 2023
Wages continue to slow down. Wage growth is now running at 3.2% on a three-month annualized bias. Production workers running at 4.2% pic.twitter.com/7ejY2CzMi9
— Nick Bunker (@nick_bunker) April 7, 2023
We're starting to see 2 economies for jobs: Still hiring in restaurants/health/gov but not in retail/real estate
Social aid +17,000
— Heather Long (@byHeatherLong) April 7, 2023
Services spending continues to outpace total spending pic.twitter.com/uWBBMAzfJQ
— Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT (@MikeZaccardi) April 11, 2023
30-year fixed mortgage rates down to 6.39% today, lowest in about two months, as investor fears about growth once again serve to boost the housing market: pic.twitter.com/GAEXP3NYlg
— Conor Sen (@conorsen) April 4, 2023
Big investors have virtually disappeared from the market – down almost 80%.
We reviewed 581,000 transactions in the largest U.S. markets in Q4 2022 and Q4 2021.
Surprisingly, investors who own 10-999 homes have slowed less. We know many of them, who are not "market timers." pic.twitter.com/3Pkako6jCX
— John Burns (@johnburnsjbrec) April 8, 2023
17% of people financing a new vehicle purchase are paying > $1,000/mo
That percentage in Q1 2021? 6%
Avg car payment = $730/mo
— Nate Geraci (@NateGeraci) April 11, 2023
Wholesale used vehicle prices (mix, mileage & seasonally adjusted) based on @Manheim_US Index increased 1.5% in March leaving the index down 2.4% y/y https://t.co/Tt0RVbz0FJ… NSA ave price increased 3.5% leaving unadjusted ave price down 2.9% y/y pic.twitter.com/wS10x9iDW8
— Jonathan Smoke (@SmokeonCars) April 7, 2023
This is big. Capital One is pulling inventory lines of credit (aka ‘floorplans’) on dealers 😳
Basically means its dealers have 90 days to refi their inventory.
From source: “Cap one is completely getting out of the inventory lending game”
[Reposted for added confidentiality]
— CarDealershipGuy (@GuyDealership) April 9, 2023
Let's test something out. Can you retweet this? https://t.co/BXbMq9dCxZ
— Timothy B. Lee (@binarybits) April 7, 2023
BOX OFFICE: #SuperMarioMovie Makes History!
– Biggest global debut ever for an animated film ($377M)
– Biggest 5-day opening ever ($204M)
– Biggest opening ever for a video game adaptation
– 3rd biggest 3-day opening for an animated film ($146M)
– Biggest opening of 2023 pic.twitter.com/zXLcaeUljS
— Erik Davis (@ErikDavis) April 9, 2023
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