In August 2017 I wrote “This will be my last post on the CAPE ratio.” I made it 16 months, which means I pretty much kept my word. I was listening to Invest Like the Best when Cliff Asness said, “You do not want to make a career trying to beat the stock market based on whether it is…
These Are the Goods
Articles Real income for the bottom 20% of wage-earners grew by a nearly identical amount as the top 5% from 1950 to 1980. By Morgan Housel People need to believe in something By Nick Maggiulli Sam’s entire family has terrible luck when it comes to the timing of their retirement. By Ben Carlson You are…
How to Read Performance
Things were going well for crude oil in 2018. After a few rough years, it was looking to deliver a double digit return, with a 27% gain through early October. The black gold hit nearly $77 a barrel, reaching its highest level in four years. But then, with no warning and without an apology, it…
Animal Spirits: How to Create the Perfect Fund
On this week’s Animal Spirits, we discuss $1,000 a month, no strings attached Universal basic income is ahead of its time Are quants facing a crisis of confidence? Hedge fund bloodbath Survey of the week Robinhood has to make money somehow Million dollar neighborhoods The decline in youth sports Banks have a lot of data…
These Are the Goods
Articles In hindsight, we can see that the value in 2014 $AAPL was real while the value in 2014 $IBM was fake. By Jesse Livermore, Chris Meredith, and Patrick O’Shaughnessy The problem we will face throughout life is how to differentiate between causation and correlation—between signal and noise. By Nick Maggiulli The fact that high…
Learning The Wrong Lessons
Every time there is an article about buy and hold investing, somebody inevitably is in the comment section with “now show Japan.” This is often used as the knee-jerk response to people like myself, who believe that buying and holding should be the default setting for most people with most of their money. Japan experienced one…
I Remember When
I was eating a bagel this weekend when my wife said to me, “I can’t believe you like their tuna, it’s really fishy.” I hadn’t noticed, but she was right, it was fishy. I hate fish. I’ll have tuna on a bagel, but would never order tuna in a restaurant. The reason why I suffer…
Animal Spirits: Spirit Animal
On this week’s Animal Spirits, we discuss: How close are we to the next bear market? Midterm election years Tech CEOs lost money Bonds for the long run 3 in 10 Americans consider themselves financially healthy (survey) Headline mismatch How much money should you charge? Berkshire’s getting into FinTech More student loan talk… …This guy…
Gratitude
Larry Page and Sergey Brin are are largely responsible for the fact that most noobwhale investors stumble across value investing early on in their journey. If you Google “best investing books,” The Intelligent Investor is right at the top of the list. What jumps right off the cover is a quote from Warren Buffett- “By far the best…
These Are the Goods
Articles How can we determine what is skill and what is luck when there are so many close calls? By Corey Hoffstein When you consistently hold a large majority of your entire portfolio in cash all it does is add pressure to the timing of your buy and sell decisions By Ben Carlson A lot…
