One of the most important items on L.B.J.’s political agenda when he was foisted into the oval office was social reform. But Johnson knew this would be an uphill battle, so he decided to focus on something that would receive bipartisan support. He thought that if he could pass a tax cut, which was previously…
Seven Minute Charts
I’ve got seven charts to quickly go over tonight. Unless the selling stops tomorrow, the S&P 500 is about to experience something it has only done once since 1960- two separate 10% drawdowns in one calendar year. This last happened in 1990, when stocks fell 10% right out of the gate, made a new intra-year…
Animal Spirits: The Next Subprime
On today’s Animal Spirits, we discuss The next subprime? Leveraged loan default rates are not something to worry about right now Housing is 15-18% of GDP (I said 12-13% on the show) Existing home sales are dropping Eaton Vance with some good slides on leveraged loans Ben contradicts himself Where does…chocolate milk come from? Alpha…
Higher Highs and Lower Lows
Harry Hopkins, head of the Civil Works Administration once said, “People don’t eat in the long run- they eat every day.” This perfectly describes why it’s so difficult to earn market returns. We might know, or think we know, that stocks are biased upwards, but the market does a good job of making you work…
These Are the Goods
Articles Alpha within factors. By Patrick O’Shaughnessy There is a graveyard of companies whose early success pushed them to grow as fast as they could By Morgan Housel The worst kind of bear market is the one you don’t see show up on your annual statements By Ben Carlson A robust system is one that…
Animal Spirits: The Healthy Correction
On today’s Animal Spirits, we discuss: Why you should not default on your 401(k) loans There are enough active buyers and sellers of stocks Student loan debt Attitudes on home ownership (survey) Are taxis cheap or a value trap? Amazon is going to tell you when you’re sick Tesla sold more cars than Mercedes Listen…
These Are the Goods
Articles We must be able to hold multiple truths in our head at once. By Rusty Guinn I spend about half of my time wondering why I have so much in stocks and about half wondering why I have so little. By Jason Zweig $43 million in assets for $464 million in liabilities By Blair…
U-G-L-Y
Today was one of those days where we’re reminded what it feels like to lose money. We know this is what we signed up for, but it doesn’t make dealing with them any easier when they happen. All of the red dots in the plot below felt like it was the end of the party….
Animal Spirits: A Committee of Geniuses
On this week’s Animal Spirits, we discuss: Social media and financial reporting How interest rates affect everything Hedge funds are closing… …like in 2000 A committee of geniuses Parents are spending money on their adult children Bernanke 1, internet 0 Short-termism is nonsense Amazon is raising wages The relentless bid Listen here: Charts mentioned Tweets…
A Bullish Washout?
Investors are nervous, which is a permanent feature of the markets, with a few exceptions. But today, after nine years of consecutive stock market gains, it’s completely normal that people are looking for clues as to when this bull run is going to end. People who pay close attention look for divergences in the advance-decline…
