There Is No End Point

The muckraking journalist Jacob Riis asked Police Commissioner Theodore Roosevelt if he had ambitions to someday be the President of The United States. Roosevelt’s reaction startled him. “Don’t you dare ask me that,” TR yelled at Riis. “Don’t you put such ideas into my head. No friend of mine would ever say a thing like…

Animal Spirits: Brothers From a Different Mother

On this week’s Animal Spirits with Michael & Ben we discuss: Reader questions- keep em coming! Smart Beta Is Making This Strategist Sick Pulling the goalie: Hockey and investment implications And the coach who never punts Will active stock funds save your bacon in a downturn Dow vigilantes Harvard blew $1 billion on tomatoes. Not…

Now or Later?

Does the chart below strike you as a risky investment? What about this one? Both of these charts cover the period from 1939 to 1985. The first one is five-year U.S. treasury notes after inflation. Five-year bonds are thought to be a rather risk-free investment. You lend money to the government, you receive interest payments,…

Today in Market History: All-Time Highs

Today in March 2013, after 1,974 days and a 54% drawdown, the Dow Jones Industrial Average recaptured all-time highs that were last seen in October 2007. The Dow was at 14,000, the CAPE ratio was under 18, unemployment was 7.5%, and the ten-year was yielding 1.9% From time to time I like to look back…

These Are the Goods

Articles Just like cars that spend 95% of their time parked, investors should spend most of their days doing nothing. By Tony Isola All the other aspects of an investment will fail you if you pay the wrong price By Nick Maggiulli The bots will never catch Buffett. By Nir Kaissar Volatility-dampeners in chief By Sloane Ortel…

A Few Charts and a Few Thoughts

February was the most volatile month for stocks since January 2016. The average absolute daily return was 1.28%. This is more than triple the average absolute daily change over the previous 24 months. Look to the left side of the chart for what extreme volatility looks like. The average absolute daily change in October and…

Animal Spirits: The Closet Indexer

On today’s show we talk about: Berkshire’s 2017 shareholder letter Will Berkshire Hathaway eventually get broken up by activists? A diversified portfolio may not help investors much this year When stocks and bonds fall This is what life without retirement savings looks like.  Overcoming a late start to saving for retirement.  Millennials are saving for…

Why Doesn’t More Money Make Us Happy?

“I wish everyone could get rich and famous and have everything they ever dreamed of so they can see it is not the answer.” -Jim Carrey In a recent ESPN article about Kyrie Irving leaving Cleveland, former teammate Channing Frye said “happiness comes and goes in the NBA.” Wait, what? These guys are playing the…

These Are the Goods

Articles Life doesn’t always give you exactly what you’re looking for at first glance By Ben Carlson U.S. companies have done even better than the U.S. economy in recent years. By Nir Kaissar It is difficult to foresee how one unlikely event can lead to other unlikely events until after they have occurred. By Nick Maggiulli Life…

Risk

In Berkshire’s 2017 annual letter, Buffett reviews details of “the bet” made ten years earlier with Protégé Partners, a fund of funds. The bet, which was made in the beginning of 2008, was very simple: could Protégé pick five fund of funds to beat the S&P 500 over the next decade? At the time the bet…