Animal Spirits: A Committee of Geniuses

On this week’s Animal Spirits, we discuss: Social media and financial reporting  How interest rates affect everything Hedge funds are closing… …like in 2000 A committee of geniuses Parents are spending money on their adult children Bernanke 1, internet 0 Short-termism is nonsense Amazon is raising wages The relentless bid Listen here: Charts mentioned Tweets…

A Bullish Washout?

Investors are nervous, which is a permanent feature of the markets, with a few exceptions. But today, after nine years of consecutive stock market gains, it’s completely normal that people are looking for clues as to when this bull run is going to end. People who pay close attention look for divergences in the advance-decline…

Built to Break

“Radiation therapy or double bypass might give you another decade or two, but an incubator gives you an entire lifetime.” Steven Johnson wrote this in Where Good Ideas Come From. He was talking about how developing nations experience a much higher infant mortality rate than the United States. What’s responsible for the gap is not just that…

These Are the Goods

Articles It’s not without precedent that the stock market can go long stretches in the absence of an enormous market crash. By Ben Carlson Investors then received 40% of their investment in pepper, before finally receiving a 30% dividend in nutmeg. By Jamie Catherwood The big culprit on the year is systematic value investing. By…

The End is Nigh

Two tweets from SentimenTrader paint a scary picture of current stock market breadth. Yesterday, he wrote: “The Dow is on track to close at a new 52-week (and all-time) high. Yet, there are 3 times as many 52-week lows as 52-week highs on the NYSE. Since 1965, that has happened on exactly one* other day….

Animal Spirits: Buy the Housing Dip

On this week’s Animal Spirits, we discuss: Is Howard Marks hurting investors? Jack Bogle still has it This is the top SoftBank is…not a bank The best portfolio My take on the perfect portfolio Fraud of the week Buy the housing dip J.P. Morgan’s New Guide to Markets Listen Here Charts Mentioned Tweets Mentioned UBS…

Stock Market Peaks

In the new edition of J.P. Morgan’s Guide to the Markets (H/T @ROIChristie), they show this incredible chart about what the average S&P 500 returns were 3, 6, 12, and 24 months following a stock market peak (and subsequent bear market). Charts like this convey an important message; They show that if you believe in…

These Are the Goods

Articles You won’t know the price of your asset until you go to sell it By Nick Maggiulli US grocery is the largest consumer category in the world, registering $641B/year in value By Scott Galloway People were literally lighting their money on fire By Ben Carlson Even if the long-term trajectory is better than average returns, the path to…

Animal Spirits: Looming Disaster

On this week’s Animal Spirits, we discuss: Do stocks diversify bonds? Can bonds be overvalued? Stocks when interest rates rise Thinking about looming disaster Klarman in 1999 Amazon microwave It’s like the internet in 1997 World poverty Betterment survey Dividend stocks are not bonds Beat the market, get more money Twilight of the terminal Listen…

The Next Generation

On the day of its IPO in May 1999, EToys’ nearly quadrupled in price. Toys ‘R’ Us did 300 times more revenue than the new kid on the block, yet after its first day as a publicly traded company, the brick and mortar store had a market cap that was 35% below it. EToys’ $7…