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Animal Spirits: A Key Market Signal
Michael Batnick
January 15, 2025
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The Compound Podcasts:
On today’s show, we discuss:
Charts:
Tweets:
First Five Days a key market signal.
The last 49 *up* "First Five Days" were followed by full-year gains on 41 of those occasions. That's an 84% hit rate. The average return is up ~14% for those years as well.
The numbers fall off dramatically when the First Five Days are down,… x.com/i/web/status/1…
— Blake B. Millard, CFA (@BlakeMillardCFA)
2:00 PM • Jan 9, 2025
In the three years ended 11/30/24, the average dollar invested in thematic funds and ETFs lost ~7% per year (-5.6% ex ARKK). Over that same span, the average dollar invested in Target-Date 2050 funds *gained* 6.9% p.a. Dull crushed exciting.
— Jeffrey Ptak (@syouth1)
7:13 PM • Jan 8, 2025
in all seriousness, this should be 100% illegal, that's not big government telling people what they should or shouldn't do with their money, that's saying you shouldn't be incentivized to burn down Santa Monica to dig yourself out of your gambling debt
— Benn Eifert 🥷🏴☠️ (@bennpeifert)
1:07 AM • Jan 10, 2025
This is still the most striking chart in economics and politics: the complete flip in one-year inflation expectations among Democrats vs. Republicans after the election. The Jan '25 data was updated this AM, find it on WSL ELECTION.
— Michael McDonough (@M_McDonough)
3:12 PM • Jan 10, 2025
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