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- Animal Spirits: Is a Recession Coming?
Animal Spirits: Is a Recession Coming?
Michael Batnick
March 05, 2025
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On today’s show, we discuss:
Charts:
Tweets:
Unless we all wake up from this collective tariffs nightmare, the reality is recession. Recession with inflation, which is called stagflation. It's the worst kind of recession, because people lose their jobs and prices stay high along with interest rates.
— Daryl Fairweather ⛅ (@FairweatherPhD)
12:52 PM • Mar 4, 2025
Target: "In light of ongoing consumer uncertainty & a small decline in February Net Sales, combined with tariff uncertainty....the Company expects to see meaningful YoY profit pressure in its Q1 relative to the remainder of the year..." $TGT
— The Transcript (@TheTranscript_)
11:48 AM • Mar 4, 2025
Real personal spending fell by the most since 2021.
— Kathy Jones (@KathyJones)
1:38 PM • Feb 28, 2025
Americans saved 4.6% of their after-tax income in January, up from 3.5% in December.
bea.gov/data/income-sa…
— BEA News (@BEA_News)
1:32 PM • Feb 28, 2025
1. Trump is more popular with young people than old people. Most young people don’t own stocks or homes (aka they are asset-light).
2. Trump is also more popular amongst working and middle class folks. Most of these folks are also asset-light.
It stands to reason that a fall… x.com/i/web/status/1…
— Chamath Palihapitiya (@chamath)
9:42 PM • Mar 3, 2025
DoorDash has turned the corner to profitability and still continues to grow its order volume.
Total orders are now up 735% over the last 5 years.
$DASH
— FinChat (@finchat_io)
9:20 PM • Feb 11, 2025
Nobody announced a tax or a spending program. Maybe you should wait to find out what’s actually being proposed.
— David Sacks (@DavidSacks)
8:48 AM • Mar 3, 2025
Correct. I sold all my cryptocurrency (including BTC, ETH, and SOL) prior to the start of the administration.
— David Sacks (@DavidSacks)
3:12 AM • Mar 3, 2025
Saw the Trump statement today, same as everyone else —
I imagined a Strategic Reserve would be just Bitcoin. That makes the most sense to me.
Many crypto assets have merits, but what we're talking about here isn't a US investment portfolio — we're talking about a reserve, and… x.com/i/web/status/1…
— Hunter Horsley (@HHorsley)
1:08 AM • Mar 3, 2025
U.S. pending home sales have fallen to a new all-time low
— Kevin Gordon (@KevRGordon)
3:08 PM • Feb 27, 2025
Netflix has taken the biggest hit. eMarketer’s analysis (see chart below) makes that abundantly clear. Since the first quarter of 2024 (i.e. when Prime Video introduced ads), Netflix CPMs have fallen more than those of Prime Video, Disney+, Max, Peacock and Hulu.
— Kourosh (@kouroshshafi)
9:23 PM • Feb 25, 2025
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