How Lies Spread

And why it feels like everything is going to hell

Michael Batnick
May 23, 2024

Despite a healthy economy and a booming stock market, there is a lingering stench of negativity in the air.

Harris conducted an exclusive poll for The Guardian, and here were some of their findings:

55% believe the economy is shrinking, and 56% think the US is experiencing a recession, though the broadest measure of the economy, gross domestic product (GDP), has been growing.
49% believe the S&P 500 stock market index is down for the year, though the index went up about 24% in 2023 and is up more than 12% this year.
49% believe that unemployment is at a 50-year high, though the unemployment rate has been under 4%, a near 50-year low.

WHAT?!?! This is crazy, right? Well, hang on a second. I’m not saying that the poll was conducted in a way that nudged the responders to answer in a certain manner, but I’m not not saying that either.

Was the vibecession real? Yes, it was. People really do believe that things are worse than they are. But do 56% of Americans think we’re in a recession? Do 49% believe that unemployment is at a 50-year high? I’m sorry, I just don’t buy that. Not for one second.

The Guardian gets paid for capturing your attention, and the best way to do that is to produce something shockingly negative. I’m not blaming the media so much as I am stating a fact. They’re in business to make money, and the best way to do that is by giving the customers what they want. This bullshit, unfortunately, is what we want. The media isn’t trying to make us depressed. They’re trying to make money.

Derek Thompson hit on this, tweeting:

“If I had to boil down my frustration w/ the state of media criticism into one suggestion it would be: If you’re the sort of person who constantly complains about the media, see what happens if, for 1 day, each time you’re about to criticize “media” you instead say “audience”

“The media only cares about bad news and negativity” → The audience only cares about bad news and negativity.”

Mark Twain once said (this is awkward) “a lie can travel halfway around the world while the truth is still putting on its shoes.”

Bill Ackman tweeted something that proves this to be true.

He apparently took a cab the other night that was powered by Uber. Ackman asked the driver how it was working for Uber, and the guy said it was bad. Uber isn’t passing through the tips, said the driver, who then showed him that his tip didn’t go through.

Instead of doing a little research, like going to Google, Bill Ackman went to his 1.2 million followers on X and said:

“Uber needs to immediately return the stolen funds with interest to the NYC taxi drivers and to other drivers in any other markets where they are doing the same and they should deeply apologize. And Uber should restate its earnings to reflect this overstatement of margins and profits.”

Elon replied, “Whoa, this is dark.”

If it were true, it would be dark. But it’s a lie. Uber does in fact pass through the tips, it just doesn’t happen automatically.

I mean, this is wild stuff.

Fortunately, community notes corrected him. But it’s too late. The lie spread around the world.

And to make matters worse, instead of deleting the tweet and apologizing, out of pride or embarrassment or whatever, he replied, “Assuming the context is true, this still must be fixed. Taxi drivers believe that they are being cheated and/or they think that their customers are not giving tips. Both are bad outcomes with what should be an easy software fix.”

This is the world we live in. Attention is the most scarce resource in the world, and people will do whatever they can to procure it. The sad truth is that negativity is the fastest car on the attention highway.