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My Biggest Takeaway From the Election

My Biggest Takeaway From the Election

Your Brain is Undefeated

Michael Batnick
November 07, 2024

I don’t talk about politics too often.

One of the main reasons is because it doesn’t interest me. It never has. I generally don’t know who has control of the House or Senate or even who the governor of my state is. Okay, that’s embarrassing, but whatever, I’ll admit it. Politics does not interest me at all. Truly.

“Yeah, well, that’s because you’re a white straight male who makes money.” Correct! I fully acknowledge the fortunate position I am in. I understand many people don’t have the luxury not to care.

I also have sixty-plus employees and over four thousand clients. We don’t all have the same view of the world. I care about connecting with these people more than I care about potentially alienating them because there are some things we disagree on.

My biggest takeaway from the election has nothing to do with politics and more to do with how humans process information. As it became clear that Donald Trump would be our next president, my first thought was, “Wow. It isn’t even close.”

And then, when I woke up yesterday, I thought, “Of course Trump won. How could I possibly have thought he wouldn’t?”

Our brains are wired to convince us that an unknowable ending was obvious once we learn the outcome.

I saw this tweet from Jeff Stein and couldn’t believe how dumb I felt.

Roughly *67%* of voters rated the economy as "not so good/poor," per Washington Post exit polls
A shockingly poor number amid a hot labor market, booming stocks, much lower inflation, growing GDP
But widespread voter dissatisfaction w/ the economy been clear for years
— Jeff Stein (@JStein_WaPo)
5:01 AM • Nov 6, 2024

MICHAEL YOU IDIOT. We spent the last two years discussing the disconnect between how the economy is doing and how people think it’s doing. How did you not see this coming? How!?!

I didn’t see this coming because I, like you, can’t see the future. But I did trick myself into knowing how obvious it was after the fact because I, like you, am human.

Hindsight bias can be dangerous if it tricks you into thinking that you knew what was going to happen. And that can lead to overconfidence, which can lead to poor decisions. So, let this be a reminder that no matter the event, whether it’s a football game or a stock’s reaction to earnings or whatever, you do not know the outcome, because the future is clear only when it’s in the past.