Michael Batnick

Precision

In 1966, Gemini XI traveled 853 miles above the earth’s surface in the farthest space mission ever.  Apollo 8 would shatter that record just two years later, taking Frank Borman, William Anders, and Jim Lovell to the moon, 240,000 miles away. The Saturn V  had 5.6 million parts, carried a million gallons of propellant, and…

How?

How can Netflix be worth nearly as much as Disney? Five years ago, Disney was worth nearly ten times as much as Netflix, and over this time, Disney’s earnings have been 35 times larger than Netflix. Yet the gap in company size has all but disappeared. How is this possible? Over the last five years, Netflix…

These Are the Goods

Articles The most dominant creatures tend to be huge, but the most enduring tend to be smaller. By Morgan Housel  We look at the present through a rear-view mirror. We march backwards into the future. By Nick Maggiulli Mr. Paulson has acknowledged making mistakes By Gregory Zuckerman The company needs to figure out how to…

Any Fool Can Be a Stock Market Genius

Last week Barry sat down for an amazing conversation with Joel Greenblatt, author of You Can Be a Stock Market Genius (originally titled Any Fool Can Be a Stock Market Genius). Greenblatt tells a story about when he went to a school in Harlem to talk with kids about investing. To explain how markets work and…

This Tells You Nothing

The average market strategist has a 2,943 year-end price target for the S&P 500. This is at the upper range of the typical 8 to 10% return that we expect strategists to expect every year. With an annual standard deviation of 20, an 8% average return means that stocks will return between -8% and +28%…

Evolving ETFs

A few weeks ago Tadas Viskanta asked a bunch of bloggers the following question: What ETF, if it were launched tomorrow, would you invest in with little (or no) hesitation? Said another way what asset class or strategy is not currently (effectively) available in an ETF wrapper?  My answer: Nothing. I’m content. Little did I know that…

Animal Spirits: Some Things We Learned

Stories Discussed Asia is disrupting Silicon Valley This guy has a $76,000 pension. Per month.   Germans save a lot of money.  Ben says the 200-day is bullet proof.  What if the future is better than we think? Everybody expects lower returns.  Borrowers are pushed deeper into debt.  But the next recession doesn’t have to mirror…

At First Glance

Some things look really impressive at first glance. Walking on burning wood is a perfect example, which John Allen Paulos writes about Innumeracy: Mathematical Illiteracy and Its Consequences: The practice has often been cited as an example of “mind over matter” and you don’t have to be innumerate to be impressed initially with such a feat….

The What-Ifs

Poker is a what-if game. What if I re-raised instead of just called. What if I got the Queen on the river. What if I just folded pre-flop. There are 2,598,960 possible  hands, so if you ever played, you’ve agonized over the what-ifs. Life delivers an endless array of what-ifs, because we only experience one version…

These Are the Goods

Articles Experience is a hard teacher because it gives the test first, and only then provides the lesson. By Carmen Sanchez and David Dunning Seeking out problems for which no solution currently exists By Amanda Cantrell It’s an uncertain business By Ben Smith Being human is being able to enjoy life By Khe Hy You…