The Point Of No Risk

“When everyone believes something is risky, their unwillingness to buy usually reduces its price to the point where it’s not risky at all. Broadly negative opinion can make it the least risky thing, since all optimism has been driven out of its price.” This Howard Marks quote is the perfect way to describe what’s happened…

If You’re Buying, Who’s Selling?

A few weeks ago at dinner I was getting set to order a brisket sandwich. Then I saw that this tower of goodness, which was covered with beer braised bacon and other accoutrements, came with a hefty price tag of 1400 calories. I thought better and went for the grilled chicken instead. Investors could use…

Looking For Signals

In September 1929, just three days before the market crashed, Irving Fisher famously said “Stocks have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau.” He died 18 year later, having never seen stocks at a higher level than when he made that statement. A few weeks earlier,  a more glaring, yet overlooked contrarian signal was provided…

Bigger, Stronger and Luckier

Professional football players today bear little resemblance to the ones who suited up in the past. In the 1920s, the average offensive lineman- the biggest guys on the field- were 6’0 tall and 211 pounds. To put that in perspective, Odell Beckham, a smallish wide receiver is 5’11 and weighs 200 pounds. Source: Business Insider…

How Twelve and a Half Cents Changed History

What if Walter White was played by Matthew Broderick and not Bryan Cranston? What if Phil Jackson sent Kobe Bryant to the Pistons for Grant Hill? What if  free agent Tim Duncan signed with the Magic in 2000? It’s safe to say that Breaking Bad would not have won 110 Emmy awards without Bryan Cranston, and the…

The Worst Month of the Year

According to a recent study, of the 47 most-damaging hurricanes between 1950 and 2012, storms with male names produced an average of 23 deaths, while those with feminine names killed 45 people on average. In less absurd, but still true studies, September has historically been the worst month of the year for stocks. In fact, it’s…

Ten Things Investors Can Learn From the Horse Track

“We look for a horse with one chance in two of winning which pays you three to one” – Charlie Munger Michael Mauboussin, one of the sharpest thinkers in finance once said, “Crist on Value is one of the best 13 pages on investing I have ever read.” I couldn’t agree more, it’s fantastic. The essay…

Performance Chasers Exit

U.S. stocks got off to the worst start ever in 2016 and high beta stocks got absolutely obliterated, falling 21% in the first 28 trading days of the year. High beta’s counterpart, low volatility stocks provided investors with some protection as they fell just under 5%. And interest followed performance…   And assets weren’t far…

Stock Market Gains On FOMC Days

In June 2011, the Wisconsin Republican party claimed that Scott Walker’s policies were responsible for over 50% of U.S. job growth. While 9,500 out of the 18,000 jobs added in the United States did come from Wisconsin, claiming that they were responsible for half of the country’s growth is being very liberal with the truth….

One Million Market Beaters

Uncertainty remains, but Florida is in the cross hairs. What to expect today after tornado outbreak. Why we’re watching Gaston closely now. These headlines were pulled from a few articles today at weather.com. You could seamlessly replace Florida, tornado, and Gaston with a stock because like the weather, markets are highly complex with countless variables that…