How I Dealt With Failure

“The hardest thing you’re ever going to do in your life is fail at something and if you don’t start failing at things you will not live a full life.”- Sebastian Junger I’ve experienced a lot of failure in my life. Like a lot of kids, I didn’t give a shit about school when I…

Chapter Twelve

Most people know John Maynard Keynes as an economist. Few realize that he was also a tremendous investor. After his macro bets failed to cushion the blow in the Great Depression, he turned to stock picking. His results were phenomenal not only for his personal account, but for the Cambridge endowment fund as well as…

Losers Average Losers

I’m not a huge fan of this quote from Paul Tudor Jones. Some of the best investors of all time have made a fortune adding to temporarily losing positions. And while this is true, it is equally true that the worst investments and the worst investors have added to losing positions, not knowing when to…

The History of An Obsession

The Power of Gold: The History of an Obsession by Peter Bernstein is not a book about why you should or should not invest in gold. Rather, it is an amazing story that takes the reader through the world’s monetary history.  With that said, I am pulling out some interesting nuggets (pun intended) where he did talk…

The Most Important Investors Of All Time

I analyzed the birth dates of the most important investors of all time. Ten observations were made. This is an incomplete list. It does not include any early financiers like J.P. Morgan, no chief strategists like Abby Joseph Cohen, and no Fed Chairman like Alan Greenspan. What it does include is traders, investors, hedge fund…

Was That A Bear Market And Is It Over?

Maybe. It’s possible. Since 1970, the S&P 500 has on average made a new all-time high every 38 days. It’s now been 252 days since this has happened (price only, not dividend adjusted). And since the S&P 500 last made a new all-time high, many areas of the market have been put through the ringer. Below is…

How To Stack The Odds In Your Favor

The best investment advice- boring as it may be- is to save more money. Delaying current consumption to benefit your future self is one of the simplest ways an investor can stack the odds in their favor. Legendary investor Stanley Druckenmiller’s is one of the more vocal bears around. His views are partially driven by…

History’s Limits

I’m a big fan of studying market history. But the reason it interests me is not so I can predict how history will repeat, but rather to empathize with the difficulties market participants dealt with in different market regimes. Whether those difficulties lie in trying to stay optimistic in a bear market, or figuring out…

Investing In A Flat Market

You’ve probably noticed that stocks haven’t gone anywhere in a while. The S&P 500 is unchanged over the last 371 days, which has happened just 119 times since 1928, or 0.54% of the time. Below is a chart showing all these instances where stocks were flat over the previous 371 days. If you’re frustrated with…

The Worst Bear Market That Nobody Ever Talks About

The longest bear market didn’t begin in 1929 or 2007, but rather on January 11, 1973 [i].  The 437 days from peak-to-trough gave birth to many well-known value investors and also left in its wake a generation of brokers that would never return to Wall Street. Roger Lowenstein described how this period is remembered forgotten…