Pareto

I tweeted this chart earlier. This chart shows that the five largest S&P 500 stocks have a market capitalization equal to the bottom 282 S&P 500 stocks. This turned out to be something of a Rorschach test, which was not my intention. I just thought it was a powerful visual. I wasn’t really trying to…

Animal Spirits: Half the Population

On this week’s Animal Spirits, we discuss: Gundlach says we’re getting closer to a recession People are watching the yield curve blip by blip Inflation could actually be okay for bond owners  Survey of the week 7 countries hold half the world’s population In 20 years, half the population will be in 8 states Amazon…

The Flattening

There’s been a ton of talk lately about the flattening yield curve. I don’t really have anything insightful to add to the conversation, but I do want to share some of the best charts I’ve seen on the topic. First, why is the curve inverting, via Tim Duy. Last week the interest rate spread between…

Pay Your Dues

A reader asks: What aptitudes and/or mentality would a given individual need to have for you to hire them with no college education?…From the way it has been spoken about to me from people in the finance industry, it seems as if they view it as nothing more than period of time you just have…

The Bottom and The Top

Aaron Brown of AQR gave a presentation in 2013 for the New York Society of Security Analysts. He said some things that are counterintuitive and controversial like “the more you pay for stocks, the safer they are” and “credit spreads are safe when they’re low and risky when they’re high.” It’s understandable to question these statements,…

These Are the Goods

Articles Reading is incredibly important, but it won’t give you a big advantage over others. It will just allow you to keep up. By Andrew Thrasher There is nothing “normal” about the distribution of investment returns and nothing straightforward about arriving at a specific return number By Charlie Bilello CEO Reed Hastings has promised negative…

Animal Spirits: Ring the Bell

On this week’s Animal Spirits we discuss: This supply chain is an operation of great breadth, scope, and complexity 800 people are getting their jobs back Student loan debt is ____ IPO market is blistering hot JP Morgan’s guide is always great Don’t sleep on esports Siphoning annuity units to buy a sports team? Listen…

57 Points

Tariffs. Trade wars. Over valued stocks. Late in the cycle. Rising interest rates. A flattening yield curve. Complacent investors. And yet here we are. The Dow is up 57 points this year. It’s easy to imagine a scenario where any combination of the above would cause stocks to fall 20% or more. It’s hard to…

Simple Momentum

Urban Carmel recently wrote “For all the time spent worrying about bear market risks, the overwhelming majority of short term traders and professional fund managers haven’t found a way to avoid it.” Today I want to talk about a systematic way to tune out the cacophony of people that proclaim to see the future before…

These Are the Goods

Articles For all the time spent worrying about bear market risks, the overwhelming majority of short term traders and professional fund managers haven’t found a way to avoid it By Urban Carmel Over 50% of Americans will find themselves in the top 10% of earners for at least one year of their lives By Ben Carlson When George Washington died in…