Pay Your Dues

A reader asks: What aptitudes and/or mentality would a given individual need to have for you to hire them with no college education?…From the way it has been spoken about to me from people in the finance industry, it seems as if they view it as nothing more than period of time you just have…

The Bottom and The Top

Aaron Brown of AQR gave a presentation in 2013 for the New York Society of Security Analysts. He said some things that are counterintuitive and controversial like “the more you pay for stocks, the safer they are” and “credit spreads are safe when they’re low and risky when they’re high.” It’s understandable to question these statements,…

These Are the Goods

Articles Reading is incredibly important, but it won’t give you a big advantage over others. It will just allow you to keep up. By Andrew Thrasher There is nothing “normal” about the distribution of investment returns and nothing straightforward about arriving at a specific return number By Charlie Bilello CEO Reed Hastings has promised negative…

Animal Spirits: Ring the Bell

On this week’s Animal Spirits we discuss: This supply chain is an operation of great breadth, scope, and complexity 800 people are getting their jobs back Student loan debt is ____ IPO market is blistering hot JP Morgan’s guide is always great Don’t sleep on esports Siphoning annuity units to buy a sports team? Listen…

57 Points

Tariffs. Trade wars. Over valued stocks. Late in the cycle. Rising interest rates. A flattening yield curve. Complacent investors. And yet here we are. The Dow is up 57 points this year. It’s easy to imagine a scenario where any combination of the above would cause stocks to fall 20% or more. It’s hard to…

Simple Momentum

Urban Carmel recently wrote “For all the time spent worrying about bear market risks, the overwhelming majority of short term traders and professional fund managers haven’t found a way to avoid it.” Today I want to talk about a systematic way to tune out the cacophony of people that proclaim to see the future before…

These Are the Goods

Articles For all the time spent worrying about bear market risks, the overwhelming majority of short term traders and professional fund managers haven’t found a way to avoid it By Urban Carmel Over 50% of Americans will find themselves in the top 10% of earners for at least one year of their lives By Ben Carlson When George Washington died in…

Today in Market History

On July 6, 1981, Du Pont, the nation’s largest chemical manufacturer, announced its intentions to pursue oil giant Conoco. 80% of Du Pont’s products were based on petrochemical feedstocks, and when the energy crisis hit in the early 70s, Du Pont was exposed to serious losses. Its profits fell from $586 million in 1973 to $273…

Animal Spirits: Black Swan Growth

On this week’s Animal Spirits, Ben and I discuss Buy high and sell low with index funds! Hedge fund fees fall to record low How to Launch and Build an Investment Fund The prophet returns (2009, video) Investing in personal-injury lawsuits Monetizing poor people But maybe payday loans aren’t so evil Finally, a bad guy…

What Have You Done For Me Lately?

The S&P 500 has gone 108 days without closing at an all-time high. This is the second longest drought since the index first made new highs in March, 2013. The chart below shows the days without an all-time closing high (red), the S&P 500 return (black), and new all-time closing highs (green). On March 28,…