Animal Spirits: The Meltdown

On today’s show we talk about: Recent market volatility What held up well (basically nothing) Stories we tell Who to blame How noobwhale investors will react to a bear market Non-correlated strategies Where hedge fund fees go Listen here: A close look at where the money flows suggests a more complicated story Barry with ex-CIA…

A Worthwhile Timesuck

I spend way too much time on Twitter. I’ve never attempted to figure out exactly how many hours a week that I’m on the platform because it would be impossible, frightening, and probably wouldn’t change my behavior. I already knew this, but it really crystalized for me while reading Cal Newport’s Deep Work. A few…

An Unprecedented Decline

Conventional wisdom goes that tops are a process. This makes sense when you think about market psychology. In a rising market, every pullback is bought, which conditions us to expect future dips to behave like previous ones. But eventually, bounces are met with less enthusiasm and the rallying cry of buy the dip morphs into sell…

These Are the Goods

Articles Bonds are just a cheap form of insurance around your equity slice. By Cullen Roche Real returns thus far in this decade are higher than they were in the 1980s By Ben Carlson You were also close with Marlon Brando? With Chris Heath and Quincy Jones There’s a fascinating case study here on how…

35 Steps To a Market Bottom

-1% Mock the permabears -2% Meh -3% Yawn -4% Off the highs -5% Pullback -6% Healthy correction -7% Buying opportunity -8% Stay the course -9% This too shall pass -10% Correction territory -11% I’m a long-term investor -12% Stocks always come back -13% Don’t panic -14% Draw lines on a chart -15% Look for attractive…

Animal Spirits: Noobwhale

On this week’s Animal Spirits with Michael & Ben we discuss: Friday’s selloff (we tape Monday morning) How endowments gauge their success. The crown jewel of the alternative investing universe. Whether or not financial advisors should be selecting fund managers Cyrpto bros and why women are better investors. Some cool charts How to think about…

Your True Risk Tolerance

The following is a public service announcement: If you weren’t worried this morning you don’t own enough stocks. — Michael Batnick (@michaelbatnick) February 6, 2018 This morning it appeared as if we were headed for a third consecutive day of the Dow declining 500 points, something which has never happened before. Sure 500 points ain’t…

A Few Charts And A Few Thoughts

Stocks gained 6% in the first 22 sessions of 2018. In the last two, they gave it all back, and then some. This is what Aristotle meant when he said “stocks take the stairs up and the elevator down.” The simplest explanation for the way markets move is this: Rising prices attract buyers and falling…

These Are the Goods

Articles When 120 of the Commodore’s descendants gathered at Vanderbilt University in 1973 for the first family reunion, there was not a millionaire among them. By Nick Maggiulli People should read more history and fewer forecasts By Morgan Housel Mean-reversion based arguments are tricky. Use with caution. By Sri Thiruvadanthai None of it serves as…

It’s Over

After getting off to a blistering start in 2018, stocks cooled off this week, with the S&P 500 falling 3.85%, its worst weekly decline since January 2016. The extended period of calm that we’ve grown accustomed to is over. The S&P 500 had been within 3% of an all-time high- even on an intra-day basis-…