Michael Batnick

A Second Challenge to Judgment

The first edition of the Journal of Portfolio Management opened with an article from its founder and editor, the great Peter Bernstein. In What this Journal is About, he wrote: The maiden issue of this Journal appears at a critical time for our profession. The dismal of record of portfolio management over the past five years…

Animal Spirits: Passive Income

On this week’s Animal Spirits, we discuss: The truth about the content business How much should you charge? Option selling When cash outperforms everything Nothing is making money this year The private equity pillage This is a weird story Is a recession coming? Recommendations Factfulness Banana The Next Millionaire Next Door Joe Rogan and Jake…

Ridiculous Outcomes

ETFs are having a bad year. Wait a minute, “ETFs are having a bad year?” That doesn’t make any sense. There are ETFs that track a stock index  There are ETFs that invest in commodities. There are ETFs that invest in emerging market stocks with low volatility. These investment vehicles come in all different shapes…

The Nifty Fifty

The bear market of 1969 absolutely wrecked small stocks. In just 17 months, they lost 56% of their value, leaving investors once bitten, twice shy. People saw how quickly smaller companies could lose their value, so they turned to a new group of “one decision” stocks. These were blue-chips that had such high growth prospects…

These Are the Goods

Articles If your investments are encumbered by loans and debt, you’re not going to be able to withstand many tackles. By Josh Brown The only way to distinguish between theory and practice is to test yourself and understand your biases By Nick Maggiulli Most of the engine noise we hear today is just for show. By Brendan…

A New Look at the Shrinking Public Market

There has been a lot written this year about the shrinking public stock market. Two of the more common reasons provided are the rise and depth of private markets as well as regulations making it more costly to come public. There is a new paper out, Technological Disruptiveness and the Evolution of IPOs and Sell-Outs, that takes…

Animal Spirits: How to Ask the Right Questions

This week’s Animal Spirits is presented by J.P. Morgan Asset Management On today’s show, we discuss: The 401(k) turns 40 years old The automatic 401(k) transfer Asking the right questions Ben’s morning routine Retirees have regrets Why the American dream is dying People don’t finish books Druck says Listen here Charts mentioned Tweets mentioned Three…

Timing the Market

In August 2017 I wrote “This will be my last post on the CAPE ratio.” I made it 16 months, which means I pretty much kept my word. I was listening to Invest Like the Best when Cliff Asness said, “You do not want to make a career trying to beat the stock market based on whether it is…

These Are the Goods

Articles Real income for the bottom 20% of wage-earners grew by a nearly identical amount as the top 5% from 1950 to 1980. By Morgan Housel People need to believe in something By Nick Maggiulli Sam’s entire family has terrible luck when it comes to the timing of their retirement. By Ben Carlson You are…

How to Read Performance

Things were going well for crude oil in 2018. After a few rough years, it was looking to deliver a double digit return, with a 27% gain through early October. The black gold hit nearly $77 a barrel, reaching its highest level in four years. But then, with no warning and without an apology, it…