April 2017

Crafting False Narratives

April has historically been a very good month for stocks, with the first two weeks in particular standing out. The average gain in the first half of April, according to a MarketWatch column, is 1.2%, compared with an average gain of 0.2% for all other months. Is there something to the IRS effect? I don’t…

These Are the Goods

Articles Amazon, the world’s most remarkable firm, is just getting started “Never before has a company been worth so much for so long while making so little money: 92% of its value is due to profits expected after 2020.” By The Economist The Difference Between a Prediction and a Probability “Tell them the market is…

This Time it Really is Different

Maybe. Stock market capitalization to GDP was once Warren Buffett’s favorite indicator. A quick glance of this ratio shows it recently blew past the two previous highs. Nobody reading this needs to be reminded of what followed those peaks. Below is another metric that shows you have to be out of your mind to own U.S….