Things Don’t Make Sense

This tweet last week caught my attention.

It’s been a weird couple of months in the market and the economy. Today was no exception.

Earlier in the week we learned that private payroll growth fell sharply in September to 89,000 for the month, badly below the 160,000 that economists were expecting. Yields backed off as traders and investors repositioned for a slowing economy.

Today we learned that nonfarm payrolls exploded to 336,000 for September, more than twice the 170,000 consensus estimate. Yields rocketed higher and stocks slumped pre-market as traders and investors did an about-face to reprice an accelerating economy that would keep the Federal Reserve’s foot not on but near the brakes.

This has been a tricky market to figure out. As always, be open to a range of outcomes and make sure you’re not wedded to any of them.

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