Michael Batnick

Looking Inside The Market

Although U.S. equity indices are hovering near all-time highs, the average stock in the Russell 3000- which covers 98% of the investable market- is already in “bear market” territory. How can it be that the average stock is down 20% from its 52-week high while the index is just 2.9% from its all-time high? There…

Paul Tudor Jones, Analogs, and Jeff Bezos

More Money Than God by Sebastian Mallaby is one of the most entertaining finance books I’ve ever read. It’s like the Market Wizards series, only in story form. I found myself scribbling notes all over the place and wanted to share a few pieces that I found particularly interesting, emphasis mine. Analogs “A story in…

Twas Ever Thus

One of the greatest top ticks of all time comes from the October 1968 edition of New York Magazine (emphasis mine): “You’ll hear fabulous success stories- like the hedge fund guy who made 20 per cent on his money in a week, for seven weeks in a row. ” “If, then, our hypothetical hedge fund can…

Some Thoughts On Emerging Markets

Emerging Markets have been performing awfully lately. And by lately, I mean the last six years in which little progress has been made. To make matters worse, there was a huge opportunity cost of having capital allocated away from U.S. equities. After six years of sideways movement, Emerging Markets are beginning to really move again,…

Is Momentum Misunderstood?

Howard Marks is a brilliant thinker and one of the most thought provoking investors out there. More importantly, he walks the walk and is the owner of a superb track record. Now that due praise is out of the way, I believe Marks is unfairly critical of technical analysis, specifically on momentum investing. From his…

Does This Time Feel Different?

The Dow Jones Industrial Average is now falling for a seventh straight day. As weakness begets more weakness, you might be thinking to yourself, “this time feels different.” You’d be right, this time does feel different. It always feels different. The reason every potential correction feels different is because we aren’t wired to remember exactly…

Charlie Munger’s Recommended Reading

“In my whole life, I have know no wise people (over a broad subject matter area) who didn’t read all the time- none, zero. You’d be amazed at how much Warren reads- and at how much I read. My children laugh at me. They think I’m a book with a couple of legs sticking out”…

Is Something Weird Going On With Apple?

Nope. There has been a lot of attention given to Apple’s recent slide as the stock swiftly fell 13.5% off its all-time highs. The reality is this sort of  price action is something that Apple shareholders have grown very accustomed to over the last few years. In fact, over the last twenty quarters (arbitrary, I…

Waiting For Normal

“This oscillation is one of the most dependable features of the investment world, and investor psychology seems to spend much more time at the extremes than it does at a happy medium” – Howard Marks These are not normal times investors are living in. The Fed has held short-term interest rates at zero for six…

When Reason Failed

People whose job is to report on the news in real time are forced to provide answers to their audience. Because price generally changes prior to the news, reasons provided often miss the mark, to be polite. Here’s a great example of that from When Genius Failed “Secretary Rubin, back from salmon fishing in Alaska, tried…