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On today’s show, we discuss:
- Should you hold bonds in a portfolio?
- Preparing for lower returns
- Believe it or not, Real Estate affordability hasn’t changed much in 40 years
- Housing market update: Miami home prices up 17% from a year ago
- Housing market affordability is so strained that couples want down payment cash rather than a wedding gift
- Why are married people happier than the rest of us?
- Home insurers cut natural disasters from policies as climate risks grow
- Jimmy Buffett does not live the Jimmy Buffett lifestyle
Tropical Bros Shirts:
- Justified: City Primeval
- National Lampoons Vacation
- Lock, Stock, and Two Smoking Barrels
- Friday the 13th
- Curb Your Enthusiasm
It really is amazing how this works.@NAAIM_Official Exposure Index was above 100 in late July, the highest level since late '22.
Now after a 5% minor pullback, it is at the lowest level this year.
In fact, down 67 pts in four wks is the largest 4-wk drop since March 2020. pic.twitter.com/MwVuYqlGPZ
— Ryan Detrick, CMT (@RyanDetrick) August 29, 2023
— Gunjan Banerji (@GunjanJS) September 4, 2023
The $SPX fell 1.8% in Aug after surging 19.5% YTD thru July. The 13 previous times SPX +>10% thru July &⬇️in Aug, it rose every time Sept-Dec by avg of 9.9%. Just one data point, but it supports the case that the Aug decline was a pullback within an ongoing uptrend. @NDR_RESEARCH pic.twitter.com/phypwypnA0
— Ed Clissold (@edclissold) September 1, 2023
— Daily Chartbook (@dailychartbook) September 1, 2023
2010s: I blame the Fed for not letting the financial system collapse
2020s: I blame fiscal policy for not letting the financial system collapse
Call me crazy but most elected officials don't want the financial system to fail
Good luck if that's what you're rooting for tho
— Ben Carlson (@awealthofcs) August 31, 2023
A worldwide survey of 200k people finds cynical people are thought of as smarter… but that, in reality, cynics test lower on cognitive & competency tests.
— Ethan Mollick (@emollick) August 29, 2023
Rapidly rising interest rates have sent the direct costs to service the national debt up dramatically—and if you account for losses on the Federal Reserve's portfolio, interest payments as a share of GDP are at postwar record highs pic.twitter.com/jyurwFOwkq
— Joey Politano 🏳️🌈 (@JosephPolitano) August 30, 2023
How are real wages doing? Most measures show they are up since prior to the pandemic but are still 3-5% below their immediate pre-pandemic trajectory.
This shows what it looks like for average hourly earnings defining the trend based on the two years pre-COVID. pic.twitter.com/Y6ULC3PD6G
— Jason Furman (@jasonfurman) July 13, 2023
One milestone in today's jobs report: Wage growth for Americans working in leisure and hospitality, the epicenter of the pandemic, finally returned to the range of the pre-pandemic expansion in August (https://t.co/PPTYRVaGYK) pic.twitter.com/WGjfxYD9sJ
— Matthew B (@boes_) September 1, 2023
Almost $300m in digital asset outflows the past 7 weeks
Centralized exchange volumes at 2020 levels
— Tom Dunleavy (@dunleavy89) September 4, 2023
1/ We are excited to announce that Visa has expanded our stablecoin settlement capabilities to merchant acquirers launching pilots with @Worldpay_Global and @Nuvei utilizing the Solana blockchainhttps://t.co/E0TjMO5xiH
— Cuy Sheffield (@cuysheffield) September 5, 2023
Believe it or not, house affordability hasn't changed much in the last 40 years.
What got inflated was people's desire for bigger and more luxurious homes. The median new house today is almost 1000 sqft bigger than 40 years ago.
Price per sqft, inflation adjusted: pic.twitter.com/pILKe3vDW3
— Daniel Vassallo (@dvassallo) September 4, 2023
Fixed charts through the latest home print for those interested:
1) cost per sq ft killed record highs the past few years
2) mortgage payments near levels when rates were ~20%
3) mortgage payment per sq ft 2x'd the past few years, but is much lower than peak rates https://t.co/UfqucmuCiN pic.twitter.com/dWGfqgMaty
— Jake (@EconomPic) September 5, 2023
THIS IS A FASCINATING CHART pic.twitter.com/pywQpFbejd
— GURGAVIN (@gurgavin) August 31, 2023
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