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On today’s show, we discuss:
- The worlds priciest stock market
- Why a US recession is still likely – and coming soon
- Only richest 20% of Americans still have excess pandemic savings
- Americans are still spending like there’s no tomorrow
- The value of residential real estate broke a new record $52T
- A longer-term look at housing prices versus employment
- UK homeowners say jump in interest rates will force more to sell
- The Science of Hitting on Disney
- 20% of adults own crypto and the vast majority see an urgent need to update the financial system
Tropical Bros Shirts:
Still no recession, but core PCE down to 2.2% on a three-month basis. Team Long Transitory for the win.
— Paul Krugman (@paulkrugman) September 29, 2023
Good episode as usual. I think you and @michaelbatnick were discussing active/passive and wondered aloud whether active might boast better dollar-wgtd. returns (despite the long-term underperformance vs passive). We've done some work looking at that fwiw. https://t.co/RxNYGPpW0T pic.twitter.com/bULLFouIHD
— Jeffrey Ptak (@syouth1) September 27, 2023
First weekly outflow for US fixed income in 39 weeks.
via TD Securities pic.twitter.com/XXXGHsBhnP
— Daily Chartbook (@dailychartbook) September 29, 2023
The inflation data from PCE–which is what the Fed focuses on–were much better for August than the CPI data.
We now have three unambiguously good months in a row for core PCE.
1 month: 1.8%
3 months: 2.2%
6 months: 3.0%
12 months: 3.9% pic.twitter.com/gyCCTHYe5A
— Jason Furman (@jasonfurman) September 29, 2023
These numbers are wrong. Actual changes (Aug 2023):
airline tickets: -13%
used cars: -7%
baby food: 8%
dry cleaning: 6% https://t.co/5J9N9lRNFB
— Jeremy Horpedahl 🤷♂️ (@jmhorp) September 28, 2023
"He becomes toxic. Like, nobody wants to talk to him. He has no friends,’" says Michael Lewis.
“There is still a Sam-Bankman-Fried-shaped hole in the world that now needs filling” for someone driven by their ideals to do good on a large scale, Lewis says. https://t.co/Xyofx7MQUU pic.twitter.com/NSDTGqnYaW
— 60 Minutes (@60Minutes) October 1, 2023
U.S. Pending Home Sales Index has now fallen by 44% from its peak, which is worse than during GFC pic.twitter.com/QdoorLDlJ4
— Liz Ann Sonders (@LizAnnSonders) September 28, 2023
#NEW Goldman Sachs reaffirms its U.S. home price outlook.
GS expects U.S. house prices to rise +1.8% in 2023 and +3.5% in 2024. pic.twitter.com/fFzSEcKFDy
— Lance Lambert (@NewsLambert) October 2, 2023
You: millennials are gonna crash this economy, they spent all their student loan $ on Taylor Swift tickets
Me: nah, they're in the best position to pay off their debt in over a decade pic.twitter.com/QsIccT5OWE
— Callie Cox (@callieabost) September 30, 2023
1. Stocks are falling like a recession is coming
2. Oil prices are rising like there's no recession in sight
3. Interest rates are rising like we have 10% inflation
4. Gold is falling like inflation is gone
5. Housing prices are rising like rates are…
— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) September 27, 2023
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