Stories mentioned It’s financial literacy month A little learning is a dangerous thing The value of I don’t know Is college worth the cost? Investors want out of Pershing Square Did Einhorn lose his mojo? The last superstar investors This Novogratz profile is worth reading. A hedge fund bought the Denver Post. The writers are…
The Risk
Investors have been worrying about a rising rate environment for a few years now. What would that do to their bonds, and how would a normalization in rates affect stocks? The jury is still out, but so far so good. From July 2016 through February 2018, the ten-year treasury rate rose from 1.37% to 2.94%….
These Are the Goods
Articles The book officially killed the category. By Steven Wood The growth in market capitalization at these companies is the stuff of investing legend By Aswath Damodaran The difficult part about working in a service profession is that you’re not selling a finished, manufactured product. You’re selling yourself or your firm’s ability to deliver on…
The Limits to Data
On the podcast this week, Ben and I spoke about an 18 year old who recently won the lottery. She was given the choice of receiving a $1 million lump sump, or $1,000 a week for life. She chose the weekly payment. This is the wrong mathematical decision. The time value of money says that…
Animal Spirits: The Lump Sum
On this week’s Animal Spirits we discuss: There were few places to hide in the first quarter Would you rather a lump sum or an annuity? States are strapped for cash 10 years after the crisis Ben got actually’d by a Senator The case for buybacks Listen here: Charts mentioned True story Chart crime of…
The Break
If you’re reading this, you’ve probably already heard. The S&P 500 closed below its 200-day moving average for the first time 443 days, ending the third longest streak of all-time. Were we “due” for a pullback? Well, at their peak in January, stocks were trading as far above their 200-day moving average as they had…
These Are the Goods
Articles Overcoming seemingly insurmountable obstacles are what defines us. By Anthony Isola Watching markets go up and down isn’t intellectually stimulating for most regular people. It’s a burden. By Morgan Housel Repetition is difficult in this business and the replication of past success stories is impossible. By Josh Brown Momentum is the premier market anomaly By…
Belief and Doubt
The psychologist Dan Gilbert once said “Findings from a multitude of research literatures converge on a single point: People are credulous creatures who find it very easy to believe and very difficult to doubt.” I’m guilty of this. I’m much more inclined to see something and say, “Huh, that’s interesting” rather than “this is total…
A Little Light
I’m lucky that I get to work with such incredible people. Dina and Tony Isola are as good as it gets. Tony wrote a beautiful piece yesterday called Ring Life’s Bell. In it he said: “Overcoming seemingly insurmountable obstacles are what defines us.” The Isola’s obstacle came when their fourth grade child, Joe, was diagnosed with stage…
The Beginning of the End?
Over the last nine years, the NASDAQ 100 gained 55%, 20%, 3%, 18%, 37%, 19%, 9%, 7%, 32%. These numbers are insane. But the past is the past and today’s question is whether the recent selling is the beginning of the end, or just another shakeout? The chart below shows that all of the FAANG…
