Conventional wisdom goes that tops are a process. This makes sense when you think about market psychology. In a rising market, every pullback is bought, which conditions us to expect future dips to behave like previous ones. But eventually, bounces are met with less enthusiasm and the rallying cry of buy the dip morphs into sell…

Articles Bonds are just a cheap form of insurance around your equity slice. By Cullen Roche Real returns thus far in this decade are higher than they were in the 1980s By Ben Carlson You were also close with Marlon Brando? With Chris Heath and Quincy Jones There’s a fascinating case study here on how…

-1% Mock the permabears -2% Meh -3% Yawn -4% Off the highs -5% Pullback -6% Healthy correction -7% Buying opportunity -8% Stay the course -9% This too shall pass -10% Correction territory -11% I’m a long-term investor -12% Stocks always come back -13% Don’t panic -14% Draw lines on a chart -15% Look for attractive…

On this week’s Animal Spirits with Michael & Ben we discuss: Friday’s selloff (we tape Monday morning) How endowments gauge their success. The crown jewel of the alternative investing universe. Whether or not financial advisors should be selecting fund managers Cyrpto bros and why women are better investors. Some cool charts How to think about…

The following is a public service announcement: If you weren’t worried this morning you don’t own enough stocks. — Michael Batnick (@michaelbatnick) February 6, 2018 This morning it appeared as if we were headed for a third consecutive day of the Dow declining 500 points, something which has never happened before. Sure 500 points ain’t…

Stocks gained 6% in the first 22 sessions of 2018. In the last two, they gave it all back, and then some. This is what Aristotle meant when he said “stocks take the stairs up and the elevator down.” The simplest explanation for the way markets move is this: Rising prices attract buyers and falling…

Articles When 120 of the Commodore’s descendants gathered at Vanderbilt University in 1973 for the first family reunion, there was not a millionaire among them. By Nick Maggiulli People should read more history and fewer forecasts By Morgan Housel Mean-reversion based arguments are tricky. Use with caution. By Sri Thiruvadanthai None of it serves as…

After getting off to a blistering start in 2018, stocks cooled off this week, with the S&P 500 falling 3.85%, its worst weekly decline since January 2016. The extended period of calm that we’ve grown accustomed to is over. The S&P 500 had been within 3% of an all-time high- even on an intra-day basis-…

Ben came out of a fog machine at his speech in Italy.  U.S. Stocks Surge Back Toward Bubble Territory. January 2010! Even if you knew what earnings would be next year… A fair value P/E ratio of 15 makes more sense The pool of money that’s sitting in cash worldwide has never been greater. There’s…

What will the headlines and articles be like if the S&P 500 goes flat on the year? If this were to happen, the index will be in a 6.45% drawdown. It’s easy to forget how normal this is when something that happens all the time hasn’t happened in a very long time. As you can…